TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Chicago Cubsof Seattle Mariners, Chicago Cubs
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$6,012
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$5,955

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,012 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfe78…0319backed Seattle Mariners36c4,035$1,453 inLost-$1,452.6910,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Chicago Cubs64c3,145$2,013 inWon+$1,132.24,03557.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L+72.2wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Chicago Cubs64c381.69$244 inWon+$137.469,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x22a4…63ebbacked Chicago Cubs64c312.49$200 inWon+$112.51,20558.8%708 W · 497 L+31.1wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x05c5…6a69backed Chicago Cubs64c311.57$199 inWon+$112.1747358.4%276 W · 197 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b11…5375backed Chicago Cubs62c299.97$186 inWon+$113.991,77749.5%880 W · 897 L+25.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc546…058ebacked Seattle Mariners35c280$99 inLost-$98.95,12754.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L+232.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Seattle Mariners37c224.79$83 inLost-$83.1711,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x22da…2866backed Seattle Mariners37c220.7$82 inLost-$81.661,72550.1%864 W · 861 L-4.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c8e…b38fbacked Chicago Cubs64c156.24$100 inWon+$56.2540658.4%237 W · 169 L+2.0wins0.00per pick58cpaid-0.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x29de…d9e6backed Chicago Cubs64c156.24$100 inWon+$56.2555259.6%329 W · 223 L+11.1wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x17d7…9e1ebacked Chicago Cubs64c125.49$81 inWon+$44.971,00058.8%588 W · 412 L+26.0wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Seattle Mariners38c124.99$47 inLost-$47.558746%270 W · 317 L-12.4wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-19.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x95f5…779fbacked Seattle Mariners21c100$21 inLost-$21.441,05644.3%468 W · 588 L-25.9wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-20.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x18a4…3a31backed Seattle Mariners34c75.05$26 inLost-$25.512,14750.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L+27.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Seattle Mariners20c71.9$14 inLost-$14.3819051.1%97 W · 93 L+8.0wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+21%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.