TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago Cubs vs. Seattle Mariners

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$14,424
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$14,563

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,424 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2dd7…89aabacked Yes46c5,000$2,300 inWon+$2,699.994951%25 W · 24 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked No54c4,132$2,230 inLost-$2,230.372,29152.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L+24.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Yes71c1,889$1,348 inWon+$541.359,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x693a…1417backed No18c1,667$300 inLost-$30030%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84d2…399bbacked No18c1,389$250 inLost-$250812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick14cpaid+27%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2fba…fd69backed No18c1,389$250 inLost-$250425%1 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick12cpaid+153.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf775…bd87backed No18c1,231$222 inLost-$221.6470%0 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked No54c636$343 inLost-$343.441,29151%658 W · 633 L-15.5wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Yes46c591.52$269 inWon+$322.173,45351.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L+58.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd5e…9040backed No54c547.89$298 inLost-$297.581,85153.1%982 W · 869 L+18.1wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Yes45c500$225 inWon+$2755,40150.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L+17.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed No55c407.02$223 inLost-$223.348,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7eeb…b6bdbacked No14c356$48 inLost-$48.444022.5%9 W · 31 L-2.4wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-40.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x54d0…8e20backed No55c272.73$150 inLost-$15032157%183 W · 138 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0ebb…2b75backed No52c254.17$132 inLost-$132.178148.1%39 W · 42 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-8.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x829e…339cbacked No10c229.21$23 inLost-$22.92425%1 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.14per pick11cpaid+261.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x48f5…698cbacked No54c103.7$56 inLost-$561957.9%11 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0547…fb35backed Yes47c100$47 inWon+$5373653%390 W · 346 L+21.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4214…4245backed No55c90.91$50 inLost-$509154.9%50 W · 41 L-0.3wins0.00per pick55cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x41cf…8268backed No54c74.07$40 inLost-$4011861%72 W · 46 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd9fe…db0dbacked Yes46c60.24$28 inWon+$32.4358352.1%304 W · 279 L+13.7wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa6db…3155backed No54c60$32 inLost-$32.478854.6%430 W · 358 L+27.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf021…245ebacked No60c56$34 inLost-$33.64362.8%27 W · 16 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked No51c50$26 inLost-$25.55,78643.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L-192.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x73b8…aa92backed No55c41.82$23 inLost-$2335652.5%187 W · 169 L+10.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+2.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.