TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Chicago Cubs vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 11.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$7,119
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$7,152

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,119 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x204f…5e14backed Under74c459.76$340 inWon+$119.812,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x88c5…4815backed Over28c256.64$72 inLost-$71.8631957.4%183 W · 136 L+23.1wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+11.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xb361…7348backed Over53c188.68$100 inLost-$10010953.2%58 W · 51 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc306…3bb9backed Under51c156.96$80 inWon+$76.962060%12 W · 8 L+1.9wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+19.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Over39c146.22$57 inLost-$56.8211,35652.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L+209.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x47c9…2038backed Over33c110.39$36 inLost-$36.3847346.5%220 W · 253 L+25.7wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+13%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Over44c89.55$39 inLost-$39.41,79643.8%786 W · 1,010 L-33.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0b46…ed67backed Under56c87.77$49 inWon+$38.621275%9 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.15per pick60cpaid+24.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3c52…99e1backed Under74c54.05$40 inWon+$14.054975.5%37 W · 12 L+2.3wins+0.05per pick71cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0fde…0258backed Over33c51.67$17 inLost-$1777952.1%406 W · 373 L+21.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x92f5…52a2backed Over28c43.75$12 inLost-$12.2517647.2%83 W · 93 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-11.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under53c28$15 inWon+$13.294,38144.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L+77.8wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Under71c27.83$20 inWon+$8.210,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x27b1…6a0bbacked Under74c21.62$16 inWon+$5.6246952.5%246 W · 223 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x962e…1d75backed Under74c15.08$11 inWon+$3.922268.2%15 W · 7 L+1.7wins+0.08per pick61cpaid+13.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.