MLB · resolved market
Chicago Cubs vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc19b662d0f6501c63c830c7500e89b16b77ff4ef98d8c40b68ce65dfa35de477
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $62,149
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $70,381
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $62,149 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8ca7…bf27backed Over | 52c | 18,485$9,611 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,874.57 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Under | 47c | 15,499$7,301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,300.63 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 49c | 8,323$4,090 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,089.63 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked Under | 48c | 6,250$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 217 | 48.4%105 W · 112 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Over | 51c | 3,940$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,940.08 | 452 | 52.4%237 W · 215 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Over | 53c | 2,744$1,454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,289.68 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 51c | 2,426$1,237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,188.73 | 5,400 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,674 L | +17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8efa…894cbacked Over | 52c | 2,225$1,157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,068 | 454 | 45.2%205 W · 249 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Under | 48c | 2,186$1,049 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,049.47 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 48c | 2,047$983 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$982.67 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c3c…e8c9backed Over | 52c | 1,923$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$923.07 | 349 | 42.7%149 W · 200 L | -19.9wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Under | 48c | 1,578$757 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$757.44 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a3…9e12backed Over | 52c | 1,518$789 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$728.47 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Over | 52c | 1,437$747 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$689.76 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc660…bd28backed Under | 48c | 1,194$573 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$573.16 | 274 | 52.6%144 W · 130 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 53c | 1,185$628 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$556.87 | 11,356 | 52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L | +209.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under | 48c | 1,141$548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$547.68 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f8…68ccbacked Under | 48c | 804$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.92 | 450 | 45.8%206 W · 244 L | -10.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 55c | 773.23$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.03 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb88a…f6adbacked Under | 48c | 600$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288 | 287 | 53.3%153 W · 134 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Over | 52c | 500$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96d9…18a0backed Over | 51c | 500$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245 | 224 | 48.7%109 W · 115 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Over | 52c | 499.99$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 707 | 44.7%316 W · 391 L | -22.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5633…59bcbacked Under | 48c | 468$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.64 | 279 | 52%145 W · 134 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 52c | 379$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.92 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0c…7f26backed Over | 53c | 377.36$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.36 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb7f…824bbacked Over | 52c | 324.63$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.82 | 67 | 64.2%43 W · 24 L | +10.6wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Under | 48c | 318.96$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.02 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 53c | 300$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…056fbacked Over | 52c | 271$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.08 | 273 | 48%131 W · 142 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 50c | 235.42$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.71 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 50c | 209.08$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.54 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17d9…84afbacked Under | 48c | 202$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.96 | 94 | 46.8%44 W · 50 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 71c | 184$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.36 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe176…0f99backed Over | 52c | 144.23$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.23 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 48c | 120$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.6 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf8c…e040backed Under | 26c | 112.46$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.34 | 175 | 48%84 W · 91 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 52c | 105.78$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.77 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…2bc3backed Over | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 541 | 46.8%253 W · 288 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x125a…df71backed Under | 24c | 93.46$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.77 | 308 | 34.1%105 W · 203 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c32…7156backed Under | 48c | 91$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.68 | 1,299 | 50.9%661 W · 638 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Under | 49c | 83.21$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.77 | 478 | 52.3%250 W · 228 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e4a…4ce0backed Under | 48c | 72$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.56 | 161 | 55.9%90 W · 71 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Over | 52c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 787 | 54.6%430 W · 357 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 53c | 59.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.43 | 2,944 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,543 L | +4.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9c…8927backed Under | 48c | 56$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.88 | 187 | 51.9%97 W · 90 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…d138backed Over | 52c | 56$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.88 | 881 | 47.8%421 W · 460 L | +4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88fb…db3abacked Under | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 731 | 43.4%317 W · 414 L | -15.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Under | 50c | 36.48$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.14 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e1b…aa71backed Under | 49c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 100 | 48%48 W · 52 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60d0…2e36backed Over | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 205 | 52.7%108 W · 97 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chicago Cubs vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5this page
- Chicago Cubs vs. Seattle MarinersSeattle Mariners won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 10.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 11.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 12.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 8.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago Cubs vs. Seattle MarinersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.