Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - ESL Challenger China Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x89b38dd287cec6fa6b38434f002ca267a7279931bb39c6bef186c7e7f0d7323f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Xtreme Gamingof Xtreme Gaming, Team Refuser
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,815
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,037
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,815 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7aba…55a7backed Team Refuser | 1c | 1,151$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa57…a128backed Xtreme Gaming | 66c | 894.99$595 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.33 | 466 | 64.2%299 W · 167 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf264…9e0fbacked Xtreme Gaming | 63c | 831.85$524 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.78 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 66cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Team Refuser | 29c | 763.41$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.69 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56ff…81a0backed Team Refuser | 18c | 619.99$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.6 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa0…1160backed Xtreme Gaming | 72c | 600$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168 | 148 | 54.7%81 W · 67 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Team Refuser | 37c | 567.98$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.36 | 869 | 49%426 W · 443 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1816…2ee6backed Team Refuser | 21c | 408.81$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.95 | 375 | 49.3%185 W · 190 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a95…343bbacked Team Refuser | 16c | 399.99$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 698 | 35.2%246 W · 452 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65bf…3906backed Team Refuser | 37c | 314.49$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Xtreme Gaming | 69c | 312.25$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.78 | 1,521 | 37.9%576 W · 945 L | -57.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa824…c9fcbacked Xtreme Gaming | 65c | 309.29$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.29 | 180 | 53.3%96 W · 84 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e3e…e3ebbacked Xtreme Gaming | 75c | 300$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 120 | 61.7%74 W · 46 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a5…e95dbacked Team Refuser | 37c | 270.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 117 | 53%62 W · 55 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeefb…d11fbacked Team Refuser | 28c | 255.9$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.74 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | -5.4wins | -0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x90af…ad4abacked Team Refuser | 30c | 224.1$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.23 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe99e…0084backed Xtreme Gaming | 70c | 218.07$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.32 | 876 | 45.7%400 W · 476 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65b6…2108backed Xtreme Gaming | 73c | 209.8$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.5 | 217 | 51.6%112 W · 105 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61d9…e0cebacked Team Refuser | 27c | 207.85$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.27 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | +7.2wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x13c7…11d9backed Team Refuser | 47c | 199.98$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.99 | 335 | 41.2%138 W · 197 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Team Refuser | 46c | 156.36$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.4 | 702 | 36.6%257 W · 445 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c8…97b4backed Xtreme Gaming | 63c | 150$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.5 | 154 | 65.6%101 W · 53 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb569…6fe0backed Xtreme Gaming | 70c | 130.8$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.24 | 275 | 48%132 W · 143 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92b5…2defbacked Xtreme Gaming | 52c | 128.12$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.45 | 958 | 41.1%394 W · 564 L | +32.7wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcaf…8229backed Team Refuser | 23c | 124.36$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.32 | 337 | 43.6%147 W · 190 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40ba…7ea5backed Team Refuser | 41c | 114$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.74 | 537 | 57.7%310 W · 227 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…0864backed Xtreme Gaming | 60c | 113.02$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.77 | 266 | 61.7%164 W · 102 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe35e…20e7backed Team Refuser | 35c | 105.05$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.27 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x730e…fca0backed Team Refuser | 12c | 102.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 205 | 35.1%72 W · 133 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -21%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00e0…8a94backed Team Refuser | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.26per pick | 56cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xae35…5dd3backed Team Refuser | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 156 | 43.6%68 W · 88 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Team Refuser | 38c | 96.85$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.73 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd41b…f648backed Xtreme Gaming | 75c | 65.67$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdec…a7a3backed Team Refuser | 19c | 64.32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5031…1ca3backed Xtreme Gaming | 64c | 62.05$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.05 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Xtreme Gaming | 67c | 45.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e2d…fb60backed Xtreme Gaming | 56c | 43$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.92 | 504 | 44%222 W · 282 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x425f…0f7abacked Xtreme Gaming | 61c | 39.97$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.59 | 181 | 54.7%99 W · 82 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44a0…6fbdbacked Xtreme Gaming | 78c | 36.1$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 72cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…6330backed Team Refuser | 38c | 34.48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefcc…4883backed Xtreme Gaming | 59c | 31.77$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.03 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe384…7fafbacked Team Refuser | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +3.3wins | +0.26per pick | 51cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6d61…9674backed Team Refuser | 47c | 21.19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04e3…3f51backed Xtreme Gaming | 55c | 21.04$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xace6…5556backed Xtreme Gaming | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 233 | 47.2%110 W · 123 L | -15.1wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ebb4backed Xtreme Gaming | 57c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.67 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe53…2dbabacked Xtreme Gaming | 78c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.74 | 444 | 74.8%332 W · 112 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f6d…ae0ebacked Xtreme Gaming | 76c | 13.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.24 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - ESL Challenger China Playoffsthis page
- Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Team Refuser - Game 1 WinnerTeam Refuser won
- Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Team Refuser - Game 2 WinnerXtreme Gaming won
- Game Handicap: Xtreme (-1.5) vs Team Refuser (+1.5)Team Refuser won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.