Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Team Refuser - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1581d7298dc8e84ef34c1cdadbbb46a62367dbf764857036884057ce51b4a43d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Xtreme Gamingof Xtreme Gaming, Team Refuser
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,608
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,281
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,608 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56ff…81a0backed Team Refuser | 1c | 4,099$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.09 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x033e…1bb9backed Team Refuser | 31c | 1,020$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.2 | 568 | 48.8%277 W · 291 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Xtreme Gaming | 69c | 925.29$638 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.84 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c29…afadbacked Xtreme Gaming | 76c | 775.72$592 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.33 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb569…6fe0backed Team Refuser | 21c | 600$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 275 | 48%132 W · 143 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed Team Refuser | 23c | 217.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 184 | 44.6%82 W · 102 L | +12.2wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3717…b35bbacked Team Refuser | 23c | 135.13$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.78 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.25per pick | 52cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Xtreme Gaming | 73c | 115$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.53 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Team Refuser | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 128 | 43.8%56 W · 72 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf69…4fa2backed Team Refuser | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 536 | 34%182 W · 354 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed Xtreme Gaming | 69c | 69.72$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.46 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…0864backed Xtreme Gaming | 72c | 60$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 266 | 61.7%164 W · 102 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Team Refuser | 22c | 48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 869 | 49%426 W · 443 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9147…baccbacked Team Refuser | 33c | 36.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe35e…20e7backed Xtreme Gaming | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.15 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92b5…2defbacked Xtreme Gaming | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 958 | 41.1%394 W · 564 L | +32.7wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Team Refuser - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - ESL Challenger China PlayoffsXtreme Gaming won
- Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Team Refuser - Game 1 WinnerTeam Refuser won
- Game Handicap: Xtreme (-1.5) vs Team Refuser (+1.5)Team Refuser won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.