Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Team Refuser - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3425ebbc62d5a183c1f7810afe17fb069e6c18f4fde7ca6ca4804884aaefb60c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Refuserof Xtreme Gaming, Team Refuser
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,099
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,480
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,099 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Team Refuser | 48c | 321.07$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.41 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf32d…bbbbbacked Xtreme Gaming | 64c | 310$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.3 | 610 | 57.9%353 W · 257 L | +2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bcb…b05abacked Team Refuser | 36c | 285$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.4 | 380 | 49.2%187 W · 193 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +168.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Xtreme Gaming | 68c | 200$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136 | 128 | 43.8%56 W · 72 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc75a…1ab2backed Team Refuser | 27c | 198.96$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.5 | 400 | 14.8%59 W · 341 L | +11.2wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd537…0f7cbacked Xtreme Gaming | 78c | 178.56$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.93 | 204 | 52.9%108 W · 96 L | -10.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b0…ad2cbacked Xtreme Gaming | 59c | 160.13$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.18 | 210 | 62.4%131 W · 79 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd9…2a08backed Xtreme Gaming | 15c | 155.17$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.64 | 522 | 43.9%229 W · 293 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Xtreme Gaming | 36c | 149$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.08 | 1,521 | 37.9%576 W · 945 L | -57.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61d9…e0cebacked Xtreme Gaming | 29c | 143.87$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | +7.2wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x13e9…7cd4backed Team Refuser | 44c | 140.34$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.4 | 90 | 45.6%41 W · 49 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe35e…20e7backed Xtreme Gaming | 69c | 129.57$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62b7…f260backed Team Refuser | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 207 | 35.3%73 W · 134 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xace6…5556backed Xtreme Gaming | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 233 | 47.2%110 W · 123 L | -15.1wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b3f…f889backed Xtreme Gaming | 75c | 94.77$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.99 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.31per pick | 71cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x92b5…2defbacked Xtreme Gaming | 45c | 90$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.68 | 958 | 41.1%394 W · 564 L | +32.7wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1532…1dadbacked Xtreme Gaming | 70c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 226 | 54.4%123 W · 103 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed Team Refuser | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 184 | 44.6%82 W · 102 L | +12.2wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe384…7fafbacked Team Refuser | 41c | 39.12$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.02 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +3.3wins | +0.26per pick | 51cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0d27…bd5abacked Xtreme Gaming | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 468 | 72.2%338 W · 130 L | +36.5wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x13e9…7eebbacked Team Refuser | 70c | 24.43$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.43 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Team Refuser | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67fe…9859backed Team Refuser | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e2d…fb60backed Xtreme Gaming | 63c | 16.42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 504 | 44%222 W · 282 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2806…6de8backed Xtreme Gaming | 73c | 14.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 113 | 44.2%50 W · 63 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Team Refuser - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - ESL Challenger China PlayoffsXtreme Gaming won
- Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Team Refuser - Game 2 WinnerXtreme Gaming won
- Game Handicap: Xtreme (-1.5) vs Team Refuser (+1.5)Team Refuser won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.