NHL · resolved market
Spread: Jets (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x89b3c64c2128a22ca5e230a0f4989083444364aa9e2eceadc59500bc0207dad5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Flamesof Jets, Flames
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,237
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,930
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,237 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Flames | 65c | 2,751$1,792 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$958.18 | 412 | 46.4%191 W · 221 L | -24.5wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4103…9b9ebacked Jets | 37c | 2,000$740 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$740 | 288 | 42%121 W · 167 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Flames | 63c | 1,577$993 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$583.46 | 874 | 47%411 W · 463 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ed…7a01backed Flames | 64c | 495.31$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.31 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f2c…49a2backed Jets | 36c | 495.31$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.31 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7425…c079backed Flames | 64c | 447.11$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.96 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +3.9wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xea11…551abacked Jets | 36c | 447.11$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.96 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -3.6wins | -0.26per pick | 47cpaid | -59%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Flames | 64c | 315.99$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.76 | 895 | 47%421 W · 474 L | -18.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9d…dc00backed Flames | 64c | 305.48$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.97 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8a0…6b5abacked Jets | 36c | 305.48$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.97 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e52…9434backed Jets | 36c | 277.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 93 | 47.3%44 W · 49 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60b6…eb2bbacked Jets | 37c | 270.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 158 | 39.9%63 W · 95 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Flames | 63c | 227.97$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.35 | 405 | 50.9%206 W · 199 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56f6…9f57backed Flames | 70c | 115.26$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 338 | 48.8%165 W · 173 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa072…9e34backed Jets | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Jets | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 378 | 47.4%179 W · 199 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e2…9710backed Flames | 68c | 95$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.4 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x757d…a7ccbacked Flames | 52c | 53$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02ec…5412backed Jets | 35c | 51.4$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 175 | 53.1%93 W · 82 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x751a…9ea1backed Flames | 51c | 42$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.58 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.38per pick | 42cpaid | +220.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Jets (-1.5)this page
- Jets vs. FlamesJets won
- Jets vs. Flames: O/U 5.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.