Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on February 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x89c204c3885caaacda00350197286ff5916f83248153b9018607842862f6c52f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,569
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,112
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,569 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa06c…0861backed Yes | 7c | 1,151$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.8 | 247 | 10.5%26 W · 221 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 13c | 1,057$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.38 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb7…61e9backed Yes | 7c | 1,026$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.27 | 240 | 10%24 W · 216 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 14c | 619.48$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.03 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 16c | 541.2$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.18 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 3c | 440.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 5c | 418.59$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.02 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed Yes | 19c | 405.4$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.7 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…623bbacked Yes | 6c | 348.08$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.38 | 268 | 28.7%77 W · 191 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 10c | 330.55$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.2 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 10c | 320.26$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.77 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed Yes | 13c | 303.54$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.9 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe170…3c0bbacked Yes | 47c | 274.73$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.44 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 8c | 273.84$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4b93…dd15backed Yes | 6c | 235$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.13 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df7…780dbacked Yes | 4c | 229.66$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…fa0cbacked Yes | 6c | 228.46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 242 | 16.9%41 W · 201 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 199.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes | 12c | 169.41$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.66 | 183 | 16.4%30 W · 153 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 9c | 150$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b09…aca6backed Yes | 58c | 145.44$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 262 | 36.6%96 W · 166 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1e…cc93backed Yes | 13c | 130$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 130 | 58.5%76 W · 54 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 10c | 127.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x861e…37aabacked Yes | 20c | 113.71$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.25 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6405…7d19backed No | 31c | 100$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.8 | 84 | 38.1%32 W · 52 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c02…ba96backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 83 | 41%34 W · 49 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…76f9backed Yes | 27c | 73.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | +4.5wins | +0.17per pick | 56cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x76ac…5315backed Yes | 18c | 70.54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 39c | 51.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.24 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…44d4backed No | 56c | 47.22$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.54 | 249 | 66.7%166 W · 83 L | +15.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6197…8b49backed Yes | 38c | 37.65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7353…2cb8backed Yes | 62c | 24.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cde…86c4backed No | 76c | 19.63$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.63 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -4.0wins | -0.24per pick | 59cpaid | -51%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on February 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 33°F or below on February 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 48°F or higher on February 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 34-35°F on February 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 36-37°F on February 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 38-39°F on February 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 40-41°F on February 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on February 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on February 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.