Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on February 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xee81d7398084e0dec481a40e2ed746c855f197364b9171e8169050c4c708dec9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,923
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,938
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,923 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 112 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x145f…fe95backed Yes | 33c | 2,800$924 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,876 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +203%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae89…a2aebacked Yes | 33c | 2,720$898 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,822.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +203%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa110…0696backed No | 67c | 1,460$978 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$978.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fa9…3247backed No | 67c | 1,420$951 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$951.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77a8…abe3backed No | 67c | 1,340$898 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$897.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf78…4e63backed No | 67c | 1,300$871 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$871 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1236…78bebacked No | 10c | 548.86$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.02 | 73 | 30.1%22 W · 51 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43f5…40d0backed No | 4c | 425.23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.01 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 69c | 408.83$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.27 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 6c | 359.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 33c | 310.27$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.79 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x182f…de4fbacked No | 72c | 309.1$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.5 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 51c | 260.94$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.35 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa3…5a51backed Yes | 41c | 242.17$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.17 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 49c | 231.26$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.58 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 54c | 211.28$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.13 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 41c | 202.37$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.3 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77e9…c72abacked No | 47c | 202.04$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.42 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd396…609fbacked Yes | 27c | 200$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -2.8wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4b4d…6b6ebacked Yes | 39c | 199.97$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.98 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 32cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed No | 14c | 188.15$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.43 | 346 | 17.9%62 W · 284 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 61c | 176.64$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.27 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 38c | 158.87$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.99 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x76ac…5315backed Yes | 79c | 150$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.06 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 13c | 149.25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69b2…e50abacked No | 69c | 144.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -6.5wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe170…3c0bbacked Yes | 70c | 140.38$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.63 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 37c | 135.22$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.46 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 56c | 135.01$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.22 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 33c | 129.43$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.21 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c3…f0f4backed Yes | 28c | 126.99$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.43 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4cc…a95dbacked No | 78c | 125.64$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 70 | 81.4%57 W · 13 L | +10.1wins | +0.14per pick | 67cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 32c | 125.4$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.75 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 35c | 125$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.5 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b09…aca6backed Yes | 36c | 119.99$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.79 | 262 | 36.6%96 W · 166 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a35…6387backed Yes | 44c | 110.92$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.84 | 59 | 28.8%17 W · 42 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 59c | 107.24$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.8 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 58c | 105.1$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.43 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca85…fe6cbacked Yes | 33c | 102.75$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.25 | 222 | 36.5%81 W · 141 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdecf…6690backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6405…7d19backed No | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 84 | 38.1%32 W · 52 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x87c7…d1b6backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed No | 49c | 96$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.15 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 34c | 88.9$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.07 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x989a…b73fbacked No | 19c | 87.52$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.97 | 181 | 64.1%116 W · 65 L | +29.3wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +37%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…7ae8backed Yes | 44c | 86.31$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.71 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…44d4backed No | 60c | 83.37$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.02 | 249 | 66.7%166 W · 83 L | +15.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed No | 61c | 82.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.41 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 38c | 82.2$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.97 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked No | 76c | 80$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.5 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 29c | 79.91$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.66 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…faeabacked Yes | 70c | 75.68$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.73 | 311 | 70.7%220 W · 91 L | +42.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…623bbacked Yes | 50c | 75$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.75 | 268 | 28.7%77 W · 191 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 48c | 74.94$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.03 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b4c…efa9backed Yes | 34c | 73.9$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.9 | 122 | 30.3%37 W · 85 L | -11.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3052…af2cbacked Yes | 50c | 70.53$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.53 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa06c…0861backed Yes | 32c | 62.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.64 | 247 | 10.5%26 W · 221 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bf…a27ebacked Yes | 42c | 61.76$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.64 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09ae…a7d6backed Yes | 35c | 57.72$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.76 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3f…3578backed No | 51c | 56.41$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.92 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6e6dbacked Yes | 43c | 55.22$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.37 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 36c | 53.76$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.32 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…d0b7backed Yes | 44c | 53.54$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.98 | 296 | 42.9%127 W · 169 L | +19.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1726…1ad4backed No | 74c | 52$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.59 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6be5…c197backed Yes | 49c | 51.62$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.17 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…7afabacked Yes | 37c | 49.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.49 | 122 | 37.7%46 W · 76 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e4…eec0backed Yes | 43c | 46.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.7 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x451f…0b7fbacked Yes | 42c | 45.59$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.39 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +251.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x531e…a7b3backed Yes | 46c | 43.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.06 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 53c | 42.43$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.41 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6077…8a56backed No | 72c | 41.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 109 | 56.9%62 W · 47 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe228…1e29backed No | 60c | 40.53$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.32 | 75 | 30.7%23 W · 52 L | -5.4wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.86 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5093…272cbacked Yes | 38c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 727 | 26.4%192 W · 535 L | +63.8wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5250…2772backed Yes | 58c | 39.92$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.62 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3111…76f8backed Yes | 29c | 38.91$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.51 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 24cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…7926backed No | 71c | 38.25$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.99 | 423 | 15.4%65 W · 358 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5506…a901backed Yes | 54c | 36.73$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.73 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +115.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x711d…6a59backed Yes | 44c | 35.98$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.98 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb25e…a93bbacked Yes | 77c | 35.3$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 234 | 36.3%85 W · 149 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…3a70backed Yes | 36c | 35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +176.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf911…8d8ebacked No | 59c | 34.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc053…4cccbacked Yes | 55c | 33.42$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x269f…6417backed No | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.09 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf21b…5121backed No | 69c | 29.88$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.62 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 67cpaid | -13%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0943…ca76backed Yes | 44c | 29.65$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.65 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6750…2f93backed Yes | 46c | 29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.8 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +168.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb082…1d47backed Yes | 36c | 28.16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.02 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cbb…74c0backed Yes | 43c | 27.91$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.91 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e40…224ebacked No | 72c | 27.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 123 | 57.7%71 W · 52 L | -10.9wins | -0.09per pick | 67cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…50ebbacked No | 64c | 27.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 315 | 67%211 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc13…83b8backed No | 63c | 27.05$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 45c | 25.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1672…03f1backed Yes | 55c | 25.37$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.42 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfda7…cf3bbacked Yes | 39c | 25.35$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.35 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…85d4backed No | 62c | 24.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.49 | 82 | 56.1%46 W · 36 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5354…625fbacked No | 60c | 21.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 59c | 20.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on February 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 33°F or below on February 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 48°F or higher on February 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 34-35°F on February 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 36-37°F on February 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 38-39°F on February 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 40-41°F on February 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on February 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on February 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.