Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Nakashima (-1.5) vs Droguet (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x89c4a9715a9745814e4d6c67b9e2fd236e6d7b09666e765ea6a69d1cd6b8a15e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Droguetof Nakashima, Droguet
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,370
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,196
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,370 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x45e4…7e20backed Nakashima | 51c | 20,000$10,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,200 | 187 | 47.6%89 W · 98 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Droguet | 49c | 19,663$9,635 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,027.91 | 1,178 | 46.3%545 W · 633 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd65…ee96backed Droguet | 48c | 5,132$2,481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,651.48 | 363 | 46.8%170 W · 193 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b8…3668backed Nakashima | 52c | 4,761$2,463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,463.29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c3c…e8c9backed Droguet | 49c | 4,082$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,081.63 | 130 | 53.1%69 W · 61 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff80…9b4dbacked Nakashima | 53c | 3,352$1,781 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,781.21 | 96 | 45.8%44 W · 52 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Droguet | 47c | 2,500$1,176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,324.1 | 2,174 | 36.9%802 W · 1,372 L | +39.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb85…152fbacked Nakashima | 51c | 2,296$1,181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,180.89 | 177 | 46.3%82 W · 95 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Nakashima | 51c | 1,920$979 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$979.41 | 288 | 50.3%145 W · 143 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9870…b9d3backed Droguet | 47c | 1,000$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…00c9backed Droguet | 49c | 999.99$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03c6…3dd2backed Nakashima | 51c | 980.39$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 89 | 56.2%50 W · 39 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb550…2799backed Droguet | 48c | 834.78$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.78 | 90 | 46.7%42 W · 48 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ee…7c1ebacked Nakashima | 51c | 806.86$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.5 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7c…8964backed Nakashima | 51c | 678.65$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.11 | 94 | 46.8%44 W · 50 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Droguet | 49c | 600$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Droguet | 49c | 300$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153 | 2,247 | 42.7%960 W · 1,287 L | +33.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b3…145dbacked Nakashima | 55c | 227.74$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 917 | 54%495 W · 422 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb42…6e09backed Droguet | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 139 | 48.2%67 W · 72 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99fe…b61cbacked Nakashima | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f19…474ebacked Nakashima | 41c | 131.2$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.79 | 180 | 38.3%69 W · 111 L | +13.5wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x844a…f6d7backed Droguet | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +5.3wins | +0.35per pick | 38cpaid | +121.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6808…899bbacked Droguet | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe846…252bbacked Nakashima | 39c | 96.72$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.72 | 134 | 38.8%52 W · 82 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Nakashima | 52c | 96$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.92 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e70…2607backed Nakashima | 55c | 94.64$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.05 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +3.0wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6d…f2b4backed Nakashima | 53c | 94.53$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 470 | 58.5%275 W · 195 L | -10.9wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Droguet | 77c | 92.33$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.86 | 2,417 | 50.7%1,226 W · 1,191 L | +78.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f1d…2fb6backed Droguet | 47c | 89.53$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.45 | 1,556 | 42.4%660 W · 896 L | +20.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Droguet | 47c | 86.9$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.22 | 4,241 | 52.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L | +65.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…3373backed Nakashima | 18c | 82.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 67 | 59.7%40 W · 27 L | +8.4wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x57b2…9da2backed Nakashima | 49c | 62.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.45 | 391 | 35.8%140 W · 251 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Droguet | 51c | 61.24$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.01 | 3,874 | 45.4%1,758 W · 2,116 L | -39.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6515…b867backed Droguet | 48c | 56.13$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.23 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Nakashima | 37c | 55.63$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.57 | 1,379 | 16.4%226 W · 1,153 L | -108.5wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ba…fc31backed Nakashima | 55c | 42.85$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.57 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbf…79c3backed Droguet | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a98…639dbacked Droguet | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 62 | 50%31 W · 31 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…780bbacked Droguet | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 1,025 | 54%554 W · 471 L | +37.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Droguet | 50c | 25.1$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.55 | 730 | 48.8%356 W · 374 L | -18.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Droguet | 62c | 24.21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…3a3fbacked Droguet | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 213 | 51.6%110 W · 103 L | -7.2wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Nakashima (-1.5) vs Droguet (+1.5)this page
- National Bank Open: Brandon Nakashima vs Titouan DroguetBrandon Nakashima won
- Set 1 Winner: Nakashima vs DroguetDroguet won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.