NHL · resolved market
Spread: Stars (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x89cd8cad9fa65216180d4e072d427c7651250be8a496d2aafd270ce167b5fd1d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Starsof Stars, Maple Leafs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,230
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,129
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,230 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Maple Leafs | 55c | 1,780$979 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$978.99 | 619 | 59.1%366 W · 253 L | +17.9wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Stars | 46c | 1,720$783 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$936.79 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8efe…7b44backed Stars | 46c | 1,474$678 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$796.42 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Maple Leafs | 54c | 1,430$777 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$776.66 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb973…ff16backed Stars | 47c | 1,064$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$563.83 | 107 | 46.7%50 W · 57 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3613…79e1backed Stars | 45c | 950$425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$525.5 | 702 | 49%344 W · 358 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Maple Leafs | 53c | 792$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.76 | 728 | 47.9%349 W · 379 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Maple Leafs | 55c | 680.75$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.61 | 1,441 | 49.2%709 W · 732 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked Maple Leafs | 54c | 600$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -6.3wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Maple Leafs | 54c | 599.99$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.99 | 919 | 45.6%419 W · 500 L | -27.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Maple Leafs | 53c | 484.6$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.84 | 881 | 51.2%451 W · 430 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d9…76dbbacked Stars | 45c | 444.44$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.44 | 485 | 52.2%253 W · 232 L | +8.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…b1b1backed Stars | 45c | 381.28$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.16 | 268 | 48.5%130 W · 138 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa1a…d9abbacked Stars | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.22 | 63 | 63.5%40 W · 23 L | +9.2wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x87e8…5e6ebacked Stars | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.77 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +3.4wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa774…005fbacked Stars | 45c | 157.54$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.02 | 142 | 45.1%64 W · 78 L | -12.5wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Maple Leafs | 54c | 112.78$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.9 | 484 | 52.3%253 W · 231 L | +14.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Maple Leafs | 56c | 111$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.89 | 629 | 44%277 W · 352 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…ad9ebacked Stars | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.7 | 177 | 55.9%99 W · 78 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x186d…fee2backed Maple Leafs | 61c | 65.54$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Maple Leafs | 55c | 56.7$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.4 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90f9…e894backed Maple Leafs | 54c | 55.61$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.03 | 156 | 47.4%74 W · 82 L | -7.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb590…15d3backed Maple Leafs | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 481 | 61.3%295 W · 186 L | +21.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9014…db4abacked Maple Leafs | 54c | 48$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.92 | 160 | 48.1%77 W · 83 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Stars | 44c | 41.13$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.23 | 696 | 53.4%372 W · 324 L | -16.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Stars | 46c | 39.64$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.26 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2128…4c6dbacked Stars | 47c | 36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.08 | 70 | 35.7%25 W · 45 L | -9.6wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Stars | 49c | 36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.54 | 1,140 | 51.5%587 W · 553 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6533…0f9cbacked Stars | 45c | 26.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.67 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed Maple Leafs | 54c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 274 | 45.6%125 W · 149 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8c…237dbacked Maple Leafs | 53c | 20.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Maple Leafs | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 421 | 44.4%187 W · 234 L | -28.0wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -17%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Stars (-1.5)this page
- Maple Leafs vs. StarsStars won
- Maple Leafs vs. Stars: O/U 5.5Over won
- Maple Leafs vs. Stars: O/U 6.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.