TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Cap Cana: Nicolas Jarry vs Adam Walton

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Adam Waltonof Nicolas Jarry, Adam Walton
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$83,621

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $83,621 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 116 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5ba6…0f07backed Adam Walton55c9,000$4,950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,049.9966949.6%332 W · 337 L-11.1wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a32…0086backed Nicolas Jarry47c5,348$2,495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,494.9919241.1%79 W · 113 L-7.7wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Nicolas Jarry45c4,370$1,970 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,970.12,86544.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L+6.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-20.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Nicolas Jarry51c3,453$1,777 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,776.528,21745.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L+166.6wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-16.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Nicolas Jarry19c3,117$597 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$597.382,74630.8%846 W · 1,900 L-67.1wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-36.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9dea…3792backed Adam Walton52c2,687$1,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,286.2636968%251 W · 118 L-1.1wins0.00per pick68cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5422…76a4backed Nicolas Jarry37c2,049$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7502623.1%6 W · 20 L-3.8wins-0.14per pick38cpaid-52.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xdc16…40a5backed Adam Walton55c1,918$1,046 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$872.091,11842.8%479 W · 639 L-7.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x522a…0076backed Adam Walton52c1,908$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$907.682360.9%14 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick59cpaid+8.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Nicolas Jarry45c1,862$839 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$838.9211,43543.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L+17.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc0ce…99f6backed Nicolas Jarry26c1,832$475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47517936.9%66 W · 113 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-4.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xde9f…d43cbacked Nicolas Jarry46c1,330$610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$610.456,59950.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L+259.7wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x71f9…16fbbacked Nicolas Jarry45c1,200$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5408855.7%49 W · 39 L+4.8wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfd5d…4183backed Nicolas Jarry45c1,123$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50014250.7%72 W · 70 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Adam Walton59c1,108$650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$458.183,07244.9%1,378 W · 1,694 L-30.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-23%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Nicolas Jarry46c1,060$488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48817452.9%92 W · 82 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed Adam Walton54c913.34$497 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$416.381,97346.3%914 W · 1,059 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x755a…6da6backed Adam Walton51c696.65$355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$341.3627539.6%109 W · 166 L+1.2wins0.00per pick39cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ffb…e82abacked Nicolas Jarry45c667.71$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30044038.4%169 W · 271 L-27.2wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-29%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb5e7…3c1abacked Nicolas Jarry43c633.99$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272.6287251.1%446 W · 426 L+8.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Adam Walton53c599.44$318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281.671,80943.8%793 W · 1,016 L-2.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Adam Walton56c590$331 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$258.991,41038.4%542 W · 868 L-13.4wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-25%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x429e…41bdbacked Adam Walton57c584.6$333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251.985255.8%29 W · 23 L+2.7wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Adam Walton54c505$274 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.5543042.8%184 W · 246 L-8.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x69dd…1964backed Adam Walton43c488.24$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$277.0411462.3%71 W · 43 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x71c1…e358backed Adam Walton52c480.4$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.431643%136 W · 180 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x85c3…6af2backed Adam Walton47c425.53$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.5312835.2%45 W · 83 L-8.0wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-11.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x70ac…0c7dbacked Adam Walton60c403.09$244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.432,53753.6%1,361 W · 1,176 L+61.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-5.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdac1…c3e1backed Adam Walton53c400$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1906839.7%27 W · 41 L+6.8wins+0.10per pick30cpaid+2.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa578…6702backed Adam Walton51c388$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.121,58847%746 W · 842 L-24.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x20ba…6c27backed Adam Walton77c323.38$249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.381,18662.8%745 W · 441 L-16.1wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x800b…152abacked Nicolas Jarry44c307.82$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.447163.4%45 W · 26 L+9.4wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+26.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x7e77…788dbacked Adam Walton57c262.98$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.081662.5%10 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Adam Walton52c258.8$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.392,76153.9%1,487 W · 1,274 L+73.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1df2…89a0backed Adam Walton58c235.56$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.972,06535.2%727 W · 1,338 L-52.7wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-19.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked Adam Walton55c225.15$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.6529533.6%99 W · 196 L-8.7wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-21.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x588b…8593backed Adam Walton49c204.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.081,10743.5%481 W · 626 L-3.9wins0.00per pick44cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x61ad…915dbacked Nicolas Jarry50c201.67$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003767.6%25 W · 12 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick64cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb31…7b95backed Nicolas Jarry32c200.88$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.2868026.2%178 W · 502 L-24.5wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-18.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa6be…b977backed Nicolas Jarry51c197.84$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001,76843.2%764 W · 1,004 L+2.9wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e59…1520backed Adam Walton46c189.96$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.5830744.6%137 W · 170 L+0.9wins0.00per pick44cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe0f6…a5eebacked Adam Walton52c181.37$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.5959954.9%329 W · 270 L+10.9wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x999d…5b2ebacked Nicolas Jarry45c178.6$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.327550.7%38 W · 37 L+5.1wins+0.07per pick44cpaid+18.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4ac9…cf1abacked Adam Walton56c178.57$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.5740264.4%259 W · 143 L+12.8wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8816…7738backed Adam Walton57c175.44$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.441,10650.3%556 W · 550 L-21.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0370…d000backed Adam Walton51c173.27$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.2753752.3%281 W · 256 L+2.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-6.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ebf…2da0backed Adam Walton43c163.83$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.835149%25 W · 26 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8bfa…a8debacked Adam Walton76c157.96$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.9635951.3%184 W · 175 L+9.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x64e8…7819backed Nicolas Jarry50c150$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$751,88235.5%669 W · 1,213 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf9ef…20ebbacked Adam Walton49c150$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.91,24551.9%646 W · 599 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1248…8db1backed Adam Walton54c150$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6925546.3%118 W · 137 L+0.7wins0.00per pick46cpaid+2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x849f…0665backed Nicolas Jarry45c144.32$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.9416046.9%75 W · 85 L-5.6wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd056…f1bebacked Adam Walton54c142.59$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.5964350.2%323 W · 320 L+10.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4cd9…a643backed Nicolas Jarry46c138.28$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.6117552.6%92 W · 83 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-9.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Adam Walton45c130.94$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.37,81650.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L+95.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Nicolas Jarry32c110.96$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.413,27013.8%450 W · 2,820 L-549.1wins-0.17per pick31cpaid-57.4%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Nicolas Jarry47c108.22$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.0838147%179 W · 202 L+9.6wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-10.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1dd2…9e07backed Nicolas Jarry43c104.65$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$452,41851.7%1,249 W · 1,169 L+10.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xddf5…aaa3backed Nicolas Jarry43c104.65$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4569253.3%369 W · 323 L-10.4wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x051b…09d4backed Adam Walton47c104.26$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.2667836%244 W · 434 L+8.7wins+0.01per pick35cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e72…d0b9backed Nicolas Jarry38c104$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.670729.1%206 W · 501 L+0.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4fab…708bbacked Adam Walton54c103.48$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.481,27630.4%388 W · 888 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x94a5…4eb8backed Adam Walton53c100$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4724547.8%117 W · 128 L+4.8wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+8.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84c7…bea7backed Adam Walton50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5066452.3%347 W · 317 L+7.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa1a9…e22ebacked Nicolas Jarry43c99.67$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.331,28439.2%503 W · 781 L-12.2wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaffe…7140backed Nicolas Jarry44c98.99$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.743242.4%183 W · 249 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x344b…f7fcbacked Adam Walton55c92$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.0299044.8%444 W · 546 L-10.8wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe2e1…c20abacked Adam Walton55c92$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.0273745.2%333 W · 404 L-9.4wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f1d…f11bbacked Adam Walton56c89.29$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.299663.5%61 W · 35 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick63cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x25f1…f53cbacked Adam Walton57c87.72$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.723056.7%17 W · 13 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+9.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x90a5…7759backed Adam Walton61c84.16$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.961464.3%9 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+20.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1698…adbdbacked Adam Walton53c81.13$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.131770.6%12 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.08per pick63cpaid+12.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Adam Walton42c78.74$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.851,26529.2%370 W · 895 L-13.3wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd038…8f51backed Adam Walton59c75.96$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.944,28840.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L-139.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-20.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2294…4cd3backed Nicolas Jarry50c75$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.514744.2%65 W · 82 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-11.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Nicolas Jarry46c71.12$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.851,24533.9%422 W · 823 L-5.6wins0.00per pick34cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x449e…4f8ebacked Adam Walton55c71$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.9513556.3%76 W · 59 L-5.4wins-0.04per pick60cpaid-6.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x319e…de42backed Adam Walton57c70.18$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.1816552.1%86 W · 79 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa509…ae46backed Nicolas Jarry41c68$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.86,78648.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L+56.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-15.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c1e…0cd2backed Nicolas Jarry45c66.67$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305617.9%10 W · 46 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-54.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa877…2e20backed Adam Walton56c60.6$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.6681047.9%388 W · 422 L+30.1wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+9.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Nicolas Jarry33c60$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.83,90150.1%1,953 W · 1,948 L-13.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb5b9…948abacked Adam Walton57c54.18$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.342358.6%248 W · 175 L-7.8wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-5.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf73f…8ba0backed Adam Walton42c50.05$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.0332837.5%123 W · 205 L-13.1wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-6.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x133a…f9d1backed Adam Walton50c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2529947.5%142 W · 157 L-8.5wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd610…4c9abacked Nicolas Jarry42c49.99$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211,21233.1%401 W · 811 L-16.7wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-4.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Nicolas Jarry41c49.15$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.269,28644.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L-245.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf4f5…8335backed Nicolas Jarry42c48.17$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.34742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-33.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x53c5…cb95backed Adam Walton63c47.3$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.3224244.6%108 W · 134 L-7.4wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x15ee…512dbacked Nicolas Jarry44c45$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.877047.9%369 W · 401 L-19.8wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0e0a…745dbacked Nicolas Jarry44c45$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.829244.5%130 W · 162 L-8.4wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9ff1…4766backed Nicolas Jarry45c44.44$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2016762.3%104 W · 63 L+9.8wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+11.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0466…b3a5backed Nicolas Jarry46c43.48$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204148.8%20 W · 21 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdfe7…820fbacked Adam Walton60c42.89$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.165451.9%28 W · 26 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1793…4ebbbacked Nicolas Jarry48c41.67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2094060.6%570 W · 370 L+11.3wins+0.01per pick59cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb691…b39dbacked Adam Walton63c41.01$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.243951.9%228 W · 211 L+17.3wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+1.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x70f9…f25bbacked Nicolas Jarry45c41$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.4599056%554 W · 436 L+32.1wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x67e6…86edbacked Nicolas Jarry45c40.51$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.2323750.6%120 W · 117 L+4.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Adam Walton52c38$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.217,13949.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L+109.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7253…9190backed Adam Walton53c37.98$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.045032%16 W · 34 L-5.8wins-0.12per pick44cpaid-32.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.