Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Minaur (-1.5) vs Shapovalov (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x89e9702ba91c0aa4d47c90bcd06a0cc46e4329b69a9d45e5cd661cff384baca3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Minaurof Minaur, Shapovalov
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,973
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,558
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,973 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8a26…937ebacked Minaur | 52c | 5,000$2,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,400 | 459 | 57.5%264 W · 195 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4379…2e16backed Shapovalov | 48c | 2,874$1,379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,379.37 | 689 | 35%241 W · 448 L | +9.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Minaur | 51c | 1,301$664 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$637.52 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Shapovalov | 48c | 1,000$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 1,510 | 37.7%569 W · 941 L | +24.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…4333backed Shapovalov | 49c | 833.33$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.33 | 437 | 43.7%191 W · 246 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Shapovalov | 48c | 600$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.49 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b1…d21fbacked Shapovalov | 51c | 529.92$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 77 | 42.9%33 W · 44 L | +9.8wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +40%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Shapovalov | 47c | 457.73$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.13 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Shapovalov | 49c | 457.73$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.29 | 488 | 42%205 W · 283 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdeff…78f8backed Minaur | 53c | 448.3$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.7 | 436 | 47.2%206 W · 230 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +53.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2095…8521backed Minaur | 49c | 378$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.78 | 176 | 58.5%103 W · 73 L | +12.1wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Shapovalov | 48c | 232$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.36 | 240 | 51.3%123 W · 117 L | +8.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed Shapovalov | 49c | 228.87$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.6 | 423 | 41.4%175 W · 248 L | +9.1wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Minaur | 50c | 215.42$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.71 | 354 | 39.8%141 W · 213 L | -15.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3643…d645backed Minaur | 51c | 197$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.53 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54d1…13f4backed Shapovalov | 46c | 185.48$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.32 | 737 | 48%354 W · 383 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…4b74backed Shapovalov | 50c | 150$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 444 | 42.3%188 W · 256 L | +14.5wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca8…7e67backed Shapovalov | 49c | 143$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.07 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Shapovalov | 49c | 133.35$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.34 | 2,174 | 36.9%802 W · 1,372 L | +39.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Shapovalov | 48c | 124.21$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.62 | 457 | 51%233 W · 224 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4537…fd02backed Minaur | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 389 | 51.9%202 W · 187 L | -16.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6add…6992backed Minaur | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae63…9dcdbacked Minaur | 51c | 88.24$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.24 | 205 | 52.2%107 W · 98 L | -10.0wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Minaur | 54c | 70.37$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.37 | 3,424 | 39.1%1,338 W · 2,086 L | -12.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Minaur | 54c | 63.26$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.1 | 2,601 | 46.5%1,209 W · 1,392 L | +18.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Minaur | 54c | 51.85$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.85 | 2,151 | 37.3%802 W · 1,349 L | -27.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…3813backed Shapovalov | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,168 | 49.1%573 W · 595 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc15c…a6b0backed Minaur | 50c | 35.15$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.58 | 287 | 58.5%168 W · 119 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbced…5808backed Shapovalov | 47c | 31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 345 | 60%207 W · 138 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17ef…9a2cbacked Minaur | 53c | 31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.57 | 788 | 57.1%450 W · 338 L | +13.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22ed…3535backed Minaur | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f2…6504backed Minaur | 51c | 27.45$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.45 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdff6…0918backed Minaur | 51c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 498 | 57%284 W · 214 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e94…776bbacked Shapovalov | 48c | 21.27$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c97…5c66backed Minaur | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 483 | 55.1%266 W · 217 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Minaur (-1.5) vs Shapovalov (+1.5)this page
- HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Denis ShapovalovAlex de Minaur won
- Set 1 Winner: Minaur vs ShapovalovMinaur won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.