TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Denis Shapovalov

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Alex de Minaurof Alex de Minaur, Denis Shapovalov
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$81,617
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$86,787

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $81,617 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 93 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfe78…0319backed Denis Shapovalov13c12,283$1,546 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,545.678,82836.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L-193.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-27.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa804…2a75backed Alex de Minaur78c10,106$7,883 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,223.3256651.8%293 W · 273 L+11.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbdb0…f8babacked Alex de Minaur79c5,000$3,950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,049.999259.8%55 W · 37 L-9.5wins-0.10per pick70cpaid-12.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x760f…326abacked Denis Shapovalov22c4,541$999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9995848.3%28 W · 30 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+15.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e62…79f1backed Denis Shapovalov1c4,137$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.1910841.7%45 W · 63 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeaf3…e802backed Denis Shapovalov10c4,100$415 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41547728.1%134 W · 343 L+18.2wins+0.04per pick24cpaid-2.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5213…6a35backed Denis Shapovalov22c3,864$850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8501,86544.7%834 W · 1,031 L+36.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a26…937ebacked Alex de Minaur77c3,346$2,577 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$769.6645957.5%264 W · 195 L+1.2wins0.00per pick57cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Denis Shapovalov15c3,000$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4509,28644.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L-245.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4379…2e16backed Denis Shapovalov21c3,000$630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$629.9968935%241 W · 448 L+9.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeaac…d71dbacked Denis Shapovalov22c2,727$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6001,86545.6%851 W · 1,014 L+50.3wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x67ce…100fbacked Alex de Minaur79c2,536$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$535.55475%3 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick64cpaid+8.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Denis Shapovalov17c2,067$348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$347.6411,43543.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L+17.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Alex de Minaur78c1,980$1,537 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$443.5911154.1%60 W · 51 L+7.3wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+2.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3590…71c0backed Denis Shapovalov23c1,324$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001936.8%7 W · 12 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Denis Shapovalov22c1,187$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261.182,46238.5%948 W · 1,514 L+93.1wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+13.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd034…eecebacked Denis Shapovalov22c1,000$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.832,73534%931 W · 1,804 L-13.2wins0.00per pick35cpaid-2.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2ad5…62ffbacked Denis Shapovalov15c1,000$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.941,22823.1%284 W · 944 L-164.0wins-0.13per pick36cpaid-47%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked Denis Shapovalov22c999.94$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.991,51037.7%569 W · 941 L+24.5wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc4b1…d21fbacked Denis Shapovalov23c990.38$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2257742.9%33 W · 44 L+9.8wins+0.13per pick30cpaid+40%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x99f0…9495backed Denis Shapovalov22c909$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.982,17436.9%802 W · 1,372 L+39.5wins+0.02per pick35cpaid+6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6318…46b1backed Denis Shapovalov22c901.93$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2005,26128.8%1,514 W · 3,747 L-19.4wins0.00per pick29cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Denis Shapovalov20c881.64$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.334,07639.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L+93.7wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e50…2609backed Denis Shapovalov22c773.14$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.0948842%205 W · 283 L+10.7wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4692…0feebacked Denis Shapovalov22c759.02$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.0715951.6%82 W · 77 L-0.8wins0.00per pick52cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde24…2b2fbacked Alex de Minaur80c708.9$567 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.151275%9 W · 3 L+1.9wins+0.16per pick59cpaid+37.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x20b4…bfa2backed Denis Shapovalov23c652.17$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15033540.9%137 W · 198 L+0.6wins0.00per pick41cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Denis Shapovalov19c601.98$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.353,66145.2%1,654 W · 2,007 L-8.7wins0.00per pick45cpaid-12.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7547…d158backed Denis Shapovalov22c600$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1327,04939.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L-20.5wins0.00per pick40cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b82…2e22backed Denis Shapovalov16c517.51$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$815933.9%20 W · 39 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Denis Shapovalov15c500$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$754,76547%2,238 W · 2,527 L-82.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb347…5166backed Alex de Minaur78c470.71$367 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.5621955.3%121 W · 98 L-3.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc34b…9296backed Denis Shapovalov23c440.82$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.3942341.4%175 W · 248 L+9.1wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7803…132fbacked Denis Shapovalov20c434.57$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.0113634.6%47 W · 89 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick33cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x104f…04aabacked Denis Shapovalov16c421.5$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.4426134.1%89 W · 172 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick33cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ba2…d212backed Denis Shapovalov22c365.91$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.51,95943.7%857 W · 1,102 L-20.9wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-14.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f2e…7c7bbacked Denis Shapovalov21c360.4$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.681,06557.4%611 W · 454 L+20.9wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8ee9…1362backed Denis Shapovalov23c350$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.572542.6%309 W · 416 L-20.9wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-11.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbff4…b609backed Alex de Minaur78c323.08$252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.0814954.4%81 W · 68 L-0.4wins0.00per pick55cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9734…bb94backed Denis Shapovalov24c304.53$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$725022%11 W · 39 L-2.6wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-31.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf6ee…0e41backed Denis Shapovalov23c300$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6936435.2%128 W · 236 L+8.7wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5968…3fc4backed Denis Shapovalov21c283$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.4342359.1%250 W · 173 L+24.7wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+12.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xccd8…f4debacked Denis Shapovalov23c261.89$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.621,47535.2%519 W · 956 L-14.1wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Denis Shapovalov15c258.2$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.964,93441.5%2,048 W · 2,886 L-77.0wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7a24…a0fdbacked Denis Shapovalov23c250$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.513838.4%53 W · 85 L-6.1wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-9.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0612…559abacked Denis Shapovalov18c218$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.2438952.2%203 W · 186 L+9.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x52a0…ec9dbacked Denis Shapovalov23c214.83$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5058045.9%266 W · 314 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-1.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a7e…fce4backed Alex de Minaur78c200$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4422344.8%100 W · 123 L+13.0wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+10.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x09b6…f48dbacked Alex de Minaur76c176.86$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.4532050%160 W · 160 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x22c7…d814backed Alex de Minaur79c151.9$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.940554.1%219 W · 186 L+9.3wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x012d…9db6backed Alex de Minaur79c151.9$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.984968.4%581 W · 268 L+25.9wins+0.03per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8d0c…c90abacked Denis Shapovalov20c150$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3083447.5%396 W · 438 L-2.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe8c4…395dbacked Denis Shapovalov22c138$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.361,03150.3%519 W · 512 L+40.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+8.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xca2b…3489backed Denis Shapovalov18c135$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.324740.1%99 W · 148 L-8.4wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-8.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x42d6…01ccbacked Alex de Minaur77c129.87$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.871,07762.8%676 W · 401 L-27.9wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-4.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3e5e…b4afbacked Alex de Minaur78c128.21$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.215367.9%36 W · 17 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick72cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xddbc…28c3backed Alex de Minaur79c126.65$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.6516761.1%102 W · 65 L-10.3wins-0.06per pick67cpaid-7.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Denis Shapovalov22c125$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.53,90150.1%1,953 W · 1,948 L-13.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc86…7e77backed Denis Shapovalov12c116.95$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.2785742.8%367 W · 490 L-23.4wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-17.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x82aa…fe2fbacked Denis Shapovalov20c112.33$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.4762727.3%171 W · 456 L-15.7wins-0.03per pick30cpaid-7.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x72a0…9bc4backed Alex de Minaur78c105.5$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.2147274.4%351 W · 121 L+5.5wins+0.01per pick73cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0576…6232backed Denis Shapovalov21c102.22$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.4750845.9%233 W · 275 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc70b…d2f2backed Alex de Minaur78c101.04$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.2313966.2%92 W · 47 L+17.0wins+0.12per pick54cpaid+22.3%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x1e7c…c4c5backed Alex de Minaur80c100$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20580%4 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick74cpaid+7.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2725…e7d1backed Denis Shapovalov21c90$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.4643952.4%230 W · 209 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0b2a…0a73backed Denis Shapovalov23c86.96$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2094058.4%549 W · 391 L+21.5wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x34f9…12ebbacked Denis Shapovalov23c86.96$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2018430.4%56 W · 128 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7f3d…95b1backed Denis Shapovalov23c86.96$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2022235.1%78 W · 144 L+1.0wins0.00per pick35cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e39…fe16backed Denis Shapovalov13c84.62$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1171021.3%151 W · 559 L-28.0wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-14%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xabb5…ea33backed Alex de Minaur80c83.38$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.681866.7%12 W · 6 L-2.4wins-0.13per pick80cpaid-16.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Denis Shapovalov15c80.4$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.066,44946.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L-42.9wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-13%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe824…65b4backed Denis Shapovalov19c78.79$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1516050.6%81 W · 79 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x908a…ad16backed Denis Shapovalov18c65$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.581,65550.1%829 W · 826 L+30.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2db8…e042backed Alex de Minaur78c64.1$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.174961.8%463 W · 286 L-5.3wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa15b…128abacked Alex de Minaur79c63.29$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.2914671.2%104 W · 42 L+9.6wins+0.07per pick65cpaid+10.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6a80…d472backed Alex de Minaur76c57.89$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.891,18652.4%622 W · 564 L+28.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x628a…6d8fbacked Alex de Minaur80c55.1$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.0411347.8%54 W · 59 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-23.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc4f…9804backed Alex de Minaur78c55$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.11,07752.4%564 W · 513 L+30.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc1b5…c8f8backed Denis Shapovalov21c54$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.341,06242%446 W · 616 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2965…0dedbacked Denis Shapovalov21c51.38$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7958539.5%231 W · 354 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-9.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e37…5bdbbacked Denis Shapovalov24c50.54$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.1319852.5%104 W · 94 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x27b1…3813backed Denis Shapovalov21c50$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.51,16849.1%573 W · 595 L-2.7wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e94…776bbacked Denis Shapovalov21c49.99$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.54531.1%14 W · 31 L-2.3wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-25.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2638…8e2dbacked Denis Shapovalov22c47.7$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4931657%180 W · 136 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9486…b806backed Alex de Minaur80c46.71$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.37875%6 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick72cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9baa…2a63backed Alex de Minaur76c39.47$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.474072.5%29 W · 11 L+4.0wins+0.10per pick63cpaid+12.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe13c…1159backed Alex de Minaur77c32.47$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.479558.9%56 W · 39 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x018a…5e65backed Alex de Minaur79c29.63$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.277749.4%38 W · 39 L-7.5wins-0.10per pick59cpaid-17.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0ade…ed94backed Alex de Minaur79c25$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.251,45854%787 W · 671 L-33.0wins-0.02per pick56cpaid+64.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2529…548abacked Alex de Minaur79c25$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.1334650.6%175 W · 171 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-5.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x46b1…428cbacked Alex de Minaur80c21.27$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.271241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-36%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb627…d968backed Alex de Minaur80c18.79$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.767560%45 W · 30 L-4.6wins-0.06per pick66cpaid-10%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdff6…0918backed Alex de Minaur79c15$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.0949857%284 W · 214 L-8.9wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-5.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.