NHL · resolved market
Avalanche vs. Blue Jackets: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x89ff4dbe436cefadc839c0055bb82ec3899761cc62a702e731e3c78b7845fc6a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $117,014
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $117,075
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $117,014 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2131…aaf2backed Over | 49c | 100,000$49,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49,000 | 52 | 53.8%28 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc350…3669backed Under | 51c | 96,973$49,456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47,516.97 | 309 | 44.7%138 W · 171 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 50c | 6,248$3,141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,140.84 | 895 | 47%421 W · 474 L | -18.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe32e…890bbacked Under | 50c | 4,452$2,226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,226 | 362 | 42%152 W · 210 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x699f…d5c6backed Over | 52c | 2,404$1,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,249.88 | 183 | 45.9%84 W · 99 L | -10.1wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Under | 50c | 2,226$1,113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,113 | 588 | 41.8%246 W · 342 L | -20.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb820…cbe7backed Under | 50c | 2,040$1,020 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,020 | 101 | 58.4%59 W · 42 L | +7.6wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3235…5a6bbacked Over | 49c | 1,060$519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.4 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.32per pick | 54cpaid | +64.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9946…a04ebacked Under | 51c | 1,060$541 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$519.4 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 42cpaid | +81.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 49c | 1,009$498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510.67 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Under | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510 | 207 | 51.2%106 W · 101 L | +10.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 51c | 751$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.99 | 874 | 47%411 W · 463 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 48c | 648.7$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.32 | 1,441 | 49.2%709 W · 732 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2785…1e29backed Under | 51c | 560$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.4 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9aa…11f7backed Over | 49c | 560$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 49c | 300$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153 | 759 | 46.6%354 W · 405 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7eee…d930backed Under | 52c | 296.02$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.09 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x421e…fe31backed Under | 51c | 205$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…f8bebacked Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 139 | 52.5%73 W · 66 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Under | 50c | 120$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.05 | 574 | 53.8%309 W · 265 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff0…2e7fbacked Over | 50c | 112.5$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.25 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -4.1wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -26%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc3f1…1ec7backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -4.2wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Under | 50c | 54$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 479 | 44.7%214 W · 265 L | -25.8wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Over | 48c | 53.85$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.85 | 378 | 47.4%179 W · 199 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56f6…9f57backed Under | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 338 | 48.8%165 W · 173 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe694…8458backed Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +4.1wins | +0.29per pick | 56cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x35af…44f3backed Under | 52c | 25.42$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +4.1wins | +0.18per pick | 56cpaid | +35%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2359…f72bbacked Over | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 84 | 47.6%40 W · 44 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Avalanche vs. Blue Jackets: O/U 6.5this page
- Avalanche vs. Blue JacketsAvalanche won
- Spread: Avalanche (-1.5)Avalanche won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.