South American Leagues · resolved market
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2025-10-26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8a006b769d8d0bcf8db4a95860f7bab4a4f9cb67c18c157c0ecb4027f592fe8a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,152
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,291
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,152 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7509…4b9dbacked Yes | 59c | 3,159$1,858 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,858 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 41cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 41c | 2,717$1,124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,592.6 | 506 | 61.3%310 W · 196 L | +20.8wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 54c | 1,267$685 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$582.07 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked No | 42c | 1,150$483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$667.08 | 160 | 55.6%89 W · 71 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa6c…4b49backed Yes | 50c | 1,098$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked No | 45c | 1,000$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 57c | 996.78$567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$566.88 | 816 | 51.6%421 W · 395 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb853…0d33backed Yes | 59c | 925.29$542 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$541.9 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 59c | 340.78$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 144 | 46.5%67 W · 77 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 48c | 337$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.67 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…959bbacked Yes | 38c | 238.16$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 123 | 31.7%39 W · 84 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71f…bd62backed No | 43c | 232.08$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.37 | 115 | 49.6%57 W · 58 L | +7.2wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked No | 57c | 181.17$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.67 | 226 | 52.7%119 W · 107 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf744…7392backed No | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1677…1126backed No | 43c | 139.33$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.74 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b53…1fa3backed Yes | 56c | 136.84$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd31c…dac9backed Yes | 36c | 120$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 46 | 23.9%11 W · 35 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 64c | 106$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.16 | 636 | 44.7%284 W · 352 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8846…7be2backed Yes | 59c | 105.85$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x288e…9ca7backed Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1889…0714backed No | 45c | 90.61$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.03 | 125 | 62.4%78 W · 47 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06da…3181backed Yes | 58c | 86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -67%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…e834backed No | 49c | 79.15$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.37 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 55cpaid | +55.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb9f9…bb92backed Yes | 59c | 76.39$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1157…7361backed Yes | 55c | 63.64$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 61cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3980…139ebacked Yes | 57c | 58.33$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.25 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…01a4backed Yes | 35c | 55.26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.23 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ab…44dfbacked Yes | 57c | 52.37$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +4.0wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfc14…1dd2backed Yes | 58c | 51.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c56…c18dbacked Yes | 62c | 48.39$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb1…4df1backed Yes | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +3.9wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +43%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbcb1…6240backed Yes | 58c | 43.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac0…52b6backed Yes | 62c | 40.84$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.32 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbe…8536backed Yes | 52c | 38.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17ae…ccf1backed Yes | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb1…a1bfbacked Yes | 57c | 33.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc668…f670backed Yes | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa02c…a000backed No | 43c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb4…1233backed Yes | 57c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x784b…aa7bbacked Yes | 51c | 28.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +41%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc5…ee5abacked No | 43c | 27.91$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.91 | 181 | 40.3%73 W · 108 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0dad…22c4backed Yes | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad28…770cbacked No | 74c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 85 | 47.1%40 W · 45 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe239…14eabacked No | 49c | 24.76$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +76.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb03…2276backed No | 44c | 23$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa03…eea2backed Yes | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f3c…b62abacked Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SE Palmeiras win on 2025-10-26?this page
- Will Cruzeiro EC win on 2025-10-26?No won
- Will SE Palmeiras vs. Cruzeiro EC end in a draw?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.