Lol · resolved market
LoL: CITA Kaizen vs EXILE esports - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8a0315127d922ab992ca8f9b20276c8b7280ad109ef4ff9ee48821a532d5eda1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- EXILE esportsof CITA Kaizen, EXILE esports
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,176
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,988
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,176 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked EXILE esports | 65c | 2,733$1,765 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$968.01 | 1,224 | 48.3%591 W · 633 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecd1…d47abacked EXILE esports | 58c | 2,237$1,294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$942.54 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +86.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1136…705ebacked CITA Kaizen | 4c | 1,600$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.94 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +3.0wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +44%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb580…0773backed EXILE esports | 61c | 1,354$827 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$526.71 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +117.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x38d0…5ea8backed EXILE esports | 60c | 1,221$728 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$492.7 | 160 | 48.1%77 W · 83 L | +14.6wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4a7b…fb06backed EXILE esports | 56c | 1,214$683 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$531.1 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.31per pick | 49cpaid | +80.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6bdd…1b11backed CITA Kaizen | 42c | 1,190$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.8 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0341…a679backed CITA Kaizen | 47c | 1,069$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504.8 | 190 | 42.1%80 W · 110 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c2…9b8dbacked CITA Kaizen | 33c | 1,035$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.78 | 592 | 48.3%286 W · 306 L | +15.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked CITA Kaizen | 30c | 843.26$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.13 | 563 | 17.2%97 W · 466 L | -16.4wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab6…078ebacked CITA Kaizen | 33c | 789.84$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.75 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked CITA Kaizen | 52c | 750$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390 | 1,368 | 37.7%516 W · 852 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed EXILE esports | 69c | 713.15$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.69 | 1,731 | 44.2%765 W · 966 L | -28.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a61…5547backed EXILE esports | 69c | 648.74$447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.54 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8e…156fbacked CITA Kaizen | 44c | 456.7$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 157 | 31.2%49 W · 108 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…a506backed CITA Kaizen | 31c | 410$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.55 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33bb…a2cdbacked CITA Kaizen | 48c | 370.63$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.31 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -3.1wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1ebd…21cdbacked CITA Kaizen | 29c | 349.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdad…9eaebacked CITA Kaizen | 30c | 275.9$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.46 | 123 | 33.3%41 W · 82 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -18%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf2…d280backed CITA Kaizen | 51c | 268.33$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.41 | 219 | 43.8%96 W · 123 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3941…ca84backed EXILE esports | 50c | 255.07$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.54 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +72.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc28f…9185backed CITA Kaizen | 35c | 250$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd77f…05a4backed EXILE esports | 64c | 250$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f05…85c5backed EXILE esports | 69c | 243.9$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.68 | 398 | 61.8%246 W · 152 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f5f…d393backed CITA Kaizen | 37c | 243.26$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91 | 60 | 35%21 W · 39 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd572…5510backed CITA Kaizen | 35c | 237.14$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83 | 71 | 47.9%34 W · 37 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd43f…608dbacked CITA Kaizen | 29c | 234.48$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.2wins | -0.25per pick | 48cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9919…f261backed CITA Kaizen | 31c | 212.63$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.1 | 187 | 42.8%80 W · 107 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef21…3dc9backed CITA Kaizen | 30c | 207.42$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 240 | 41.3%99 W · 141 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…1a20backed CITA Kaizen | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c3…2149backed CITA Kaizen | 28c | 196.61$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 67 | 41.8%28 W · 39 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8847…fc98backed CITA Kaizen | 28c | 190$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.2 | 88 | 35.2%31 W · 57 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3635…1afdbacked CITA Kaizen | 36c | 158.33$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84c6…68dabacked CITA Kaizen | 36c | 122.22$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4415…b335backed CITA Kaizen | 33c | 120$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe986…8f0dbacked CITA Kaizen | 30c | 110.17$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa32…31aabacked CITA Kaizen | 49c | 82.08$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed CITA Kaizen | 32c | 70$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.7 | 2,226 | 37.5%834 W · 1,392 L | -29.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a02…a770backed CITA Kaizen | 52c | 69.27$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.1 | 1,372 | 48.6%667 W · 705 L | +57.5wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc2…48a9backed EXILE esports | 80c | 49.06$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.81 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f3d…1f52backed CITA Kaizen | 39c | 41.03$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e0f…0fe0backed CITA Kaizen | 45c | 37.13$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked EXILE esports | 65c | 37.03$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.05 | 229 | 55.5%127 W · 102 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc036…7df5backed EXILE esports | 75c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- LoL: CITA Kaizen vs EXILE esports - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- LoL: CITA Kaizen vs EXILE esports (BO5) - Hitpoint Masters PlayoffsCITA Kaizen won
- LoL: CITA Kaizen vs EXILE esports - Game 2 WinnerEXILE esports won
- LoL: CITA Kaizen vs EXILE esports - Game 3 WinnerCITA Kaizen won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.