TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: CITA Kaizen vs EXILE esports (BO5) - Hitpoint Masters Playoffs

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
CITA Kaizenof CITA Kaizen, EXILE esports
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$57,974
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$73,665

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,974 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 112 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x96e8…58f0backed EXILE esports58c12,753$7,397 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,396.921442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb580…0773backed CITA Kaizen38c7,032$2,671 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,361.114100%4 W · 0 L+2.0wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+117.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1bdd…23dcbacked EXILE esports64c5,375$3,434 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,434.0217163.2%108 W · 63 L+18.6wins+0.11per pick52cpaid+19.8%equal weight61+0.09 edge/pick
0xecd1…d47abacked CITA Kaizen43c3,018$1,286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,731.413100%3 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+86.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb8cb…8f46backed CITA Kaizen31c2,000$620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,379.9648440.5%196 W · 288 L-5.8wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb04b…e2d4backed CITA Kaizen19c1,908$362 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,545.761275%9 W · 3 L+3.7wins+0.31per pick44cpaid+114.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed EXILE esports67c1,852$1,232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,232.273,58440.1%1,437 W · 2,147 L+31.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a7b…fb06backed CITA Kaizen37c1,674$627 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,046.15580%4 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.31per pick49cpaid+80.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8d9f…787abacked CITA Kaizen32c1,566$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,066.3361045.2%276 W · 334 L+35.4wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+16%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x38d0…5ea8backed CITA Kaizen36c1,464$524 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$939.5916048.1%77 W · 83 L+14.6wins+0.09per pick39cpaid+18.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xdf43…ae9abacked CITA Kaizen42c1,356$569 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$786.9620151.7%104 W · 97 L-11.3wins-0.06per pick57cpaid-8.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked EXILE esports75c1,285$969 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$968.672,82541.4%1,169 W · 1,656 L-14.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-4.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6e32…ab65backed EXILE esports67c1,151$769 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$769.292,15653.2%1,148 W · 1,008 L+57.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcdad…9eaebacked CITA Kaizen42c1,000$420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58012333.3%41 W · 82 L-5.1wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-18%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x71c0…13b5backed EXILE esports59c999.99$590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$589.9921954.3%119 W · 100 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd5a1…0544backed CITA Kaizen42c888$373 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$515.0419844.9%89 W · 109 L+1.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked CITA Kaizen22c820.07$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$643.631,59234%541 W · 1,051 L-79.3wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-32.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x30bf…a6f7backed CITA Kaizen37c713.34$261 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$452.342360.9%14 W · 9 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaccb…61dcbacked CITA Kaizen39c673.58$264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$409.541546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-14.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd470…c278backed CITA Kaizen15c657.35$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$558.242250%11 W · 11 L+3.5wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+51.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4bd2…0c9dbacked CITA Kaizen38c650.31$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$400.312100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+112.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0341…a679backed CITA Kaizen42c636.19$267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$368.9919042.1%80 W · 110 L-6.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-11.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8929…733ebacked CITA Kaizen29c633.56$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$446.8810933%36 W · 73 L-3.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-19.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe550…2c8bbacked EXILE esports71c618.16$436 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$435.9932345.8%148 W · 175 L-11.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-11.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3414…067abacked CITA Kaizen41c599.96$246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$353.9877131.8%245 W · 526 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e12…20e9backed CITA Kaizen42c590$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$342.212035.8%43 W · 77 L-12.6wins-0.11per pick46cpaid-26.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x920d…38adbacked CITA Kaizen27c564.66$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$410.666041.7%25 W · 35 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick38cpaid-1.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x47c6…2fe4backed CITA Kaizen33c546.87$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$366.6256650%283 W · 283 L-14.5wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked EXILE esports64c542.51$348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$347.891,22448.3%591 W · 633 L+26.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x19dc…4b3fbacked EXILE esports69c513.04$354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3542835.7%10 W · 18 L-4.5wins-0.16per pick52cpaid-33%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x17cd…7423backed CITA Kaizen41c506.73$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$298.9742735.4%151 W · 276 L-17.6wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-13.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd90c…b513backed CITA Kaizen33c501.64$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$336.151643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8120…54c9backed EXILE esports62c452.79$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2793148.4%15 W · 16 L+2.9wins+0.09per pick39cpaid+52.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9bd1…cfb4backed CITA Kaizen62c406.04$253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.831353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.11per pick43cpaid-11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0bcf…75c6backed CITA Kaizen32c394.11$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$269.868929.2%26 W · 63 L-6.1wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-32%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed EXILE esports64c383.22$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.051,73144.2%765 W · 966 L-28.4wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-15.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad09…3c3fbacked CITA Kaizen35c363.69$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$236.52475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.26per pick49cpaid+58.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xed8f…5aa7backed CITA Kaizen40c363.25$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.9518829.8%56 W · 132 L-11.1wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-17.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0cd9…2a08backed EXILE esports36c301.1$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.4339239%153 W · 239 L+6.8wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe50b…c2a8backed EXILE esports68c300$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20436048.9%176 W · 184 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc0d4…0289backed EXILE esports67c296.7$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2004327.9%12 W · 31 L-6.8wins-0.16per pick44cpaid-54.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x5409…79dbbacked EXILE esports69c289.86$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20030160.8%183 W · 118 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid+3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1621…572cbacked EXILE esports77c266.05$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.41566.7%10 W · 5 L+2.1wins+0.14per pick53cpaid-2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7646…b2a1backed CITA Kaizen27c258.5$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.52437.5%9 W · 15 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc30b…1b6dbacked EXILE esports69c217.39$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1501963.2%12 W · 7 L+1.5wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+4.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1ca0…38babacked CITA Kaizen57c211.1$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.11,44343.4%626 W · 817 L+105.5wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+20.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xced8…221ebacked CITA Kaizen36c203.84$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.8447444.1%209 W · 265 L+1.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x602a…9a6ebacked EXILE esports73c190$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.71637.5%6 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-26.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x520e…d75abacked EXILE esports72c190$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.2528837.5%108 W · 180 L-16.7wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8f5f…d393backed CITA Kaizen50c184.81$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.816035%21 W · 39 L-4.5wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-23.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfa32…31aabacked CITA Kaizen42c176.19$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.19250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+19%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5416…075ebacked EXILE esports77c167.26$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.92250%1 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick78cpaid-37.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d0a…63d4backed CITA Kaizen42c166.67$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.671100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+138.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc4b2…4ab2backed EXILE esports62c163.72$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.3466445.6%303 W · 361 L+14.3wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x610d…6c37backed CITA Kaizen32c149.69$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.534663%29 W · 17 L+6.6wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+31.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xbb87…4611backed CITA Kaizen57c135.43$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.4326556.2%149 W · 116 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb3e…9120backed EXILE esports74c135.14$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1007741.6%32 W · 45 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick42cpaid+2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa6b8…4bdfbacked CITA Kaizen25c129.63$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.177028.6%20 W · 50 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-11.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa4e…5973backed CITA Kaizen42c124.17$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.0155744%245 W · 312 L-17.4wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0976…922bbacked CITA Kaizen28c117.69$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.74366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+68.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd43f…0bb0backed EXILE esports50c114$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$571,13030%339 W · 791 L-27.5wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed CITA Kaizen25c113.28$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.989810.7%96 W · 802 L+2.6wins0.00per pick10cpaid-36.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16ea…6df7backed EXILE esports66c110.82$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.9216421.3%35 W · 129 L-22.2wins-0.14per pick35cpaid-59.8%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed EXILE esports47c109.84$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.891,60617.5%281 W · 1,325 L-245.0wins-0.15per pick33cpaid-63.5%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x1136…705ebacked CITA Kaizen16c100$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$841850%9 W · 9 L+3.0wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+44%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5e8c…ec8fbacked CITA Kaizen32c100$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$684938.8%19 W · 30 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-19.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0e53…dcdebacked CITA Kaizen31c99.99$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$694951%25 W · 24 L+3.5wins+0.07per pick44cpaid-6.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7628…eb57backed CITA Kaizen11c99.99$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.991428.6%4 W · 10 L+2.4wins+0.17per pick12cpaid+244.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x588d…3f41backed CITA Kaizen42c97.7$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.6712545.6%57 W · 68 L+8.0wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+30.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2133…7903backed CITA Kaizen41c96$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.6429143.3%126 W · 165 L+11.5wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+3.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbe04…1481backed CITA Kaizen37c94.03$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.417741.6%32 W · 45 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9dde…5e80backed CITA Kaizen42c92$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.361275%9 W · 3 L+4.0wins+0.33per pick42cpaid+82.6%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x70df…0144backed EXILE esports76c90.38$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.691675%12 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick68cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0d0e…8d7dbacked CITA Kaizen42c85.71$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.711833.3%6 W · 12 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4676…3d2bbacked EXILE esports62c80.65$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501346.2%6 W · 7 L-2.1wins-0.16per pick62cpaid-33.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xac61…2a16backed EXILE esports64c75$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x74d2…66e9backed CITA Kaizen36c75$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$483100%3 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+124.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2c1b…8046backed EXILE esports67c74.85$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.11per pick56cpaid-27.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfdfc…22b8backed CITA Kaizen42c73.33$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.531154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.7wins+0.16per pick39cpaid+19.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2654…b45fbacked EXILE esports59c68.33$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.1524356%136 W · 107 L+9.2wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-2.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb384…7f58backed EXILE esports60c62$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.21275%9 W · 3 L+2.2wins+0.18per pick57cpaid+31.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc036…7df5backed CITA Kaizen42c59.52$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.52757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+26.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed EXILE esports72c59.25$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.492,22637.5%834 W · 1,392 L-29.3wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f72…deadbacked CITA Kaizen42c57.2$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.182100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+110%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3c02…ca9cbacked EXILE esports74c54.05$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402360.9%14 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick64cpaid-4.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1ec0…6367backed EXILE esports59c52.54$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3110%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e32…192cbacked CITA Kaizen35c51.43$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.4310039%39 W · 61 L-9.3wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-26%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x08e4…5cc1backed EXILE esports59c50.85$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30560%3 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick66cpaid-6.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51eb…6bfabacked EXILE esports59c50.85$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3014266.9%95 W · 47 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9135…a63ebacked EXILE esports28c50.23$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.217919%15 W · 64 L-4.8wins-0.06per pick25cpaid-58.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x69b7…ae1dbacked CITA Kaizen60c50$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2025764.2%165 W · 92 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick63cpaid+4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9aaf…8298backed EXILE esports61c50$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.558042.4%246 W · 334 L+0.8wins0.00per pick42cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7af3…caf2backed CITA Kaizen33c45.99$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.712100%2 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+177.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc463…78ccbacked EXILE esports68c44$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303764.9%24 W · 13 L+4.5wins+0.12per pick53cpaid+43.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf163…ca34backed EXILE esports62c43.77$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.121,47748.3%713 W · 764 L+45.1wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x69e4…9bacbacked CITA Kaizen25c42.3$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.7224949.8%124 W · 125 L+0.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid+3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c94…5b86backed EXILE esports75c40$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305125.5%13 W · 38 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-28.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed CITA Kaizen26c39.52$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.091,83117.1%313 W · 1,518 L-236.0wins-0.13per pick30cpaid-46%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x537a…7447backed EXILE esports59c38.42$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.672462.5%15 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x51ad…5e56backed EXILE esports72c34.76$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2519946.7%93 W · 106 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.