Earnings · resolved market
Will Opendoor (OPEN) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8a0d635536dfd78add95268d601b05567b6ce8a3412e0cb8cf2c28c97d9e5945
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,701
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,763
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,701 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0d59…f7e5backed No | 65c | 183.1$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.48 | 170 | 64.1%109 W · 61 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4edd…f6dcbacked No | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4aae…d563backed No | 79c | 150$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 63cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed Yes | 37c | 126.99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.99 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.28per pick | 38cpaid | -87.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…98a5backed Yes | 35c | 120$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.4 | 107 | 40.2%43 W · 64 L | -7.2wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 58c | 101$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.58 | 579 | 39%226 W · 353 L | -25.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 90 | 35.6%32 W · 58 L | -11.1wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x94a5…4eb8backed Yes | 40c | 90$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.6 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e88…301cbacked No | 42c | 51$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.62 | 471 | 38.6%182 W · 289 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa20b…390bbacked Yes | 36c | 46.87$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.87 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 312 | 29.8%93 W · 219 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -4.6wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x477d…55a9backed Yes | 43c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.07 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0327…5e15backed Yes | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.21per pick | 58cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8998…2707backed Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 46cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.