Tennis · resolved market
Australian Open Women's: Taylor Townsend vs Nao Hibino
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8a16fb3904ab9c042f4289793c6c5fe531e02cbe8c7ba3022360b6afebe45a57
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Townsendof Townsend, Hibino
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,259
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,381
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,259 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Hibino | 0c | 4,125$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Hibino | 19c | 712.5$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.78 | 4,426 | 51.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L | +136.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Hibino | 24c | 658.17$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.67 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Townsend | 78c | 532.6$416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.66 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Hibino | 22c | 352.46$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Townsend | 79c | 345.52$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.93 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Hibino | 7c | 340$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.12 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Hibino | 10c | 339.68$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.51 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Hibino | 5c | 329.08$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 156 | 5.8%9 W · 147 L | -32.4wins | -0.21per pick | 27cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 30-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xcbac…435fbacked Hibino | 29c | 251.09$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.75 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bdb…a90dbacked Hibino | 7c | 186.49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 269 | 21.2%57 W · 212 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdc…c974backed Townsend | 78c | 184.21$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.21 | 51 | 60.8%31 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Hibino | 22c | 138.66$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.42 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd89b…7945backed Townsend | 79c | 126.07$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.06 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70ac…0c7dbacked Hibino | 18c | 89$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.42 | 2,537 | 53.6%1,361 W · 1,176 L | +61.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe09e…5047backed Hibino | 19c | 77.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 74 | 44.6%33 W · 41 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7df…809bbacked Hibino | 26c | 60.05$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c0c…a55dbacked Townsend | 80c | 60$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 229 | 65.9%151 W · 78 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac0…540abacked Townsend | 80c | 37.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 77cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9236…da58backed Townsend | 78c | 33.94$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe759…3648backed Townsend | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 155 | 51.6%80 W · 75 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a58…149dbacked Townsend | 77c | 15.52$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.53 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec8…397bbacked Townsend | 74c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.64 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Australian Open Women's: Taylor Townsend vs Nao Hibinothis page
- Set 1 Winner: Townsend vs HibinoHibino won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.