Mls · resolved market
Columbus Crew vs. CF Montréal: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8a312f6994117d1b0fee095b5339075be1ed172e440a602313f425b56b9e0487
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,046
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,298
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,046 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 65c | 996.51$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.76 | 1,449 | 36.8%533 W · 916 L | -12.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8314…0f1ebacked Over | 38c | 499.95$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.98 | 54 | 64.8%35 W · 19 L | +7.6wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x91fe…c1c6backed Over | 35c | 400.36$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.73 | 386 | 46.4%179 W · 207 L | +14.4wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 35c | 278.22$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.06 | 1,271 | 45.4%577 W · 694 L | -26.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb476…6eacbacked Under | 60c | 176.67$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.42 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 7c | 143.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 362 | 47.2%171 W · 191 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 38c | 136.82$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.99 | 682 | 50.7%346 W · 336 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Over | 38c | 133.3$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.65 | 532 | 24.1%128 W · 404 L | -24.9wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd74…bedabacked Over | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 48c | 97.49$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.7 | 1,002 | 40.2%403 W · 599 L | +12.6wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 78c | 89.08$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.86 | 805 | 49.9%402 W · 403 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Under | 80c | 74$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 202 | 52%105 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 40c | 61.9$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 972 | 56.5%549 W · 423 L | +71.2wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd0fb…8092backed Over | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 77 | 35.1%27 W · 50 L | -8.0wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 63c | 57.6$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.13 | 294 | 60.5%178 W · 116 L | +36.5wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed Under | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.41 | 273 | 44.3%121 W · 152 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…d542backed Under | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 73 | 67.1%49 W · 24 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 62c | 43.31$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.46 | 334 | 46.7%156 W · 178 L | -14.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 61c | 38.23$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.91 | 1,306 | 51.2%669 W · 637 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under | 62c | 38$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.44 | 356 | 50.6%180 W · 176 L | +9.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 80c | 35.16$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 926 | 46.7%432 W · 494 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b18…dd26backed Under | 62c | 29.58$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.24 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -3.6wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9013…e7e0backed Under | 48c | 20.94$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.94 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Under | 61c | 18.03$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.97 | 200 | 53%106 W · 94 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd4…b303backed Under | 62c | 16.39$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.23 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Columbus Crew vs. CF Montréal: O/U 3.5this page
- Columbus Crew vs. CF Montréal: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Columbus Crew vs. CF Montréal: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- Columbus Crew vs. CF Montréal: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Columbus Crew vs. CF Montréal: Both Teams to Score in First HalfYes won
- Columbus Crew vs. CF Montréal: Columbus Crew O/U 0.5Over won
- Columbus Crew vs. CF Montréal: Columbus Crew O/U 1.5Under won
- Columbus Crew vs. CF Montréal: O/U 0.5Over won
- Columbus Crew vs. CF Montréal: O/U 1.5Over won
- Columbus Crew vs. CF Montréal: O/U 2.5Over won
- Columbus Crew vs. CF Montréal: O/U 4.5Under won
- Columbus Crew vs. CF Montréal: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: CF Montréal (-1.5)Columbus Crew won
- Spread: CF Montréal (-2.5)Columbus Crew won
- Spread: Columbus Crew (-1.5)CF Montréal won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.