Mls · resolved market
Columbus Crew vs. CF Montréal: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x47d8a99010d9cc07d99e778ce1c14f064ea1905c3450c15797f1cf9dbab32f68
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,996
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,179
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,996 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0ee4…276fbacked Under | 72c | 11,155$7,995 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,160.1 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 26c | 3,642$944 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$943.78 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 28c | 3,032$849 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$849.02 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 22c | 2,346$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 28c | 1,471$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.35 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91fe…c1c6backed Over | 20c | 386.25$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.24 | 382 | 46.1%176 W · 206 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 27c | 369.94$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.36 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Over | 21c | 212.96$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.47 | 529 | 23.8%126 W · 403 L | -25.8wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 79c | 190.46$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.04 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x277b…31fabacked Over | 28c | 116$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.48 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd4…de15backed Over | 22c | 110.85$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.44 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71e8…2f67backed Under | 65c | 38.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 66cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90a1…fb15backed Under | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8084…abe8backed Under | 78c | 28.21$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 31 | 74.2%23 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 78cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 70c | 26.38$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.96 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5cf…7b4cbacked Under | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 75cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 74c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 802 | 49.8%399 W · 403 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29b3…966bbacked Under | 73c | 21.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +66.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba5e…153bbacked Under | 79c | 20.26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.26 | 73 | 39.7%29 W · 44 L | -6.3wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 78c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.96 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Columbus Crew vs. CF Montréal: O/U 4.5this page
- Columbus Crew vs. CF Montréal: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Columbus Crew vs. CF Montréal: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- Columbus Crew vs. CF Montréal: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Columbus Crew vs. CF Montréal: Both Teams to Score in First HalfYes won
- Columbus Crew vs. CF Montréal: Columbus Crew O/U 0.5Over won
- Columbus Crew vs. CF Montréal: Columbus Crew O/U 1.5Under won
- Columbus Crew vs. CF Montréal: O/U 0.5Over won
- Columbus Crew vs. CF Montréal: O/U 1.5Over won
- Columbus Crew vs. CF Montréal: O/U 2.5Over won
- Columbus Crew vs. CF Montréal: O/U 3.5Under won
- Columbus Crew vs. CF Montréal: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: CF Montréal (-1.5)Columbus Crew won
- Spread: CF Montréal (-2.5)Columbus Crew won
- Spread: Columbus Crew (-1.5)CF Montréal won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.