Mls · resolved market
Columbus Crew vs. CF Montréal: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x93330952beb5e1b9d14876c1236ddf32168d442bd4a02946f133ae13af9a135d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,130
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,281
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,130 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 24c | 768.95$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.55 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 75c | 755.71$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.71 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3a…e8fdbacked Under | 40c | 500$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 75 | 49.3%37 W · 38 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8314…0f1ebacked Over | 60c | 500$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 54 | 64.8%35 W · 19 L | +7.6wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Under | 10c | 389.8$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.98 | 228 | 41.7%95 W · 133 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91fe…c1c6backed Over | 68c | 232.32$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.53 | 382 | 46.1%176 W · 206 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 60c | 224.33$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.6 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 23c | 207.81$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.8 | 714 | 43.7%312 W · 402 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7c2…73bfbacked Under | 34c | 192$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.16 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 24c | 173$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.89 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 72c | 137.56$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.52 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 35c | 137.25$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.76 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf423…31c4backed Under | 39c | 122$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.87 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0fb…8092backed Over | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 76 | 34.2%26 W · 50 L | -8.4wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 61c | 58.33$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 681 | 50.8%346 W · 335 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 80c | 47.9$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.58 | 294 | 60.5%178 W · 116 L | +36.5wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 39c | 39.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf27…f35fbacked Under | 41c | 36.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3a…e85dbacked Under | 41c | 35.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd4…de15backed Over | 78c | 35.42$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.79 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 36c | 32.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65b5…aa71backed Over | 61c | 29.14$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.37 | 140 | 62.1%87 W · 53 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x147c…2540backed Over | 59c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x430b…f9e0backed Over | 61c | 16.54$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.45 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Columbus Crew vs. CF Montréal: O/U 2.5this page
- Columbus Crew vs. CF Montréal: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Columbus Crew vs. CF Montréal: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- Columbus Crew vs. CF Montréal: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Columbus Crew vs. CF Montréal: Both Teams to Score in First HalfYes won
- Columbus Crew vs. CF Montréal: Columbus Crew O/U 0.5Over won
- Columbus Crew vs. CF Montréal: Columbus Crew O/U 1.5Under won
- Columbus Crew vs. CF Montréal: O/U 0.5Over won
- Columbus Crew vs. CF Montréal: O/U 1.5Over won
- Columbus Crew vs. CF Montréal: O/U 3.5Under won
- Columbus Crew vs. CF Montréal: O/U 4.5Under won
- Columbus Crew vs. CF Montréal: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: CF Montréal (-1.5)Columbus Crew won
- Spread: CF Montréal (-2.5)Columbus Crew won
- Spread: Columbus Crew (-1.5)CF Montréal won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.