Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Kentucky Wildcats vs. Vanderbilt Commodores: O/U 157.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8a4a90178efe009357a1a452686b869c444c4003488df893f592520add23ae8e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $230,620
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $230,741
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $230,620 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb45a…192cbacked Over | 49c | 204,402$100,524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100,523.51 | 896 | 45.9%411 W · 485 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9b…414dbacked Under | 51c | 150,000$75,750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74,250 | 302 | 49.3%149 W · 153 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 52c | 23,323$12,156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,167.49 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 51c | 17,500$8,925 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,575 | 906 | 45.4%411 W · 495 L | +9.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe248…f293backed Over | 45c | 10,000$4,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,500 | 781 | 55.6%434 W · 347 L | +38.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x360b…982fbacked Under | 49c | 6,767$3,316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,451.17 | 64 | 46.9%30 W · 34 L | -4.7wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf35…b5eabacked Over | 51c | 6,767$3,451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,451.17 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7a5…7c26backed Under | 53c | 5,375$2,849 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,526.25 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…34a8backed Under | 55c | 5,033$2,768 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,265.07 | 354 | 52.3%185 W · 169 L | +17.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Under | 55c | 4,951$2,723 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,228.17 | 1,397 | 52.7%736 W · 661 L | +26.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fcd…355abacked Under | 52c | 3,361$1,747 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,613.72 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +5.6wins | +0.23per pick | 47cpaid | +53.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbdc3…c0eabacked Under | 53c | 2,300$1,219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,081 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea81…eeaebacked Under | 51c | 1,000$511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489.61 | 1,227 | 27.8%341 W · 886 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30a4…8441backed Under | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490 | 422 | 46.2%195 W · 227 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1eee…9b2bbacked Under | 57c | 440.39$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.39 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Over | 46c | 200$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 1,487 | 43%639 W · 848 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…8d89backed Under | 53c | 84.91$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.91 | 498 | 49.6%247 W · 251 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb0…3182backed Over | 46c | 66.65$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.62 | 413 | 54%223 W · 190 L | +13.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e51…e4f7backed Over | 47c | 59.39$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.91 | 583 | 45.5%265 W · 318 L | -10.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…06c5backed Over | 46c | 55.15$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.37 | 427 | 51.8%221 W · 206 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…e1f5backed Under | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 1,162 | 55.2%641 W · 521 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe88b…fa5abacked Under | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 346 | 49.1%170 W · 176 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea10…a070backed Under | 55c | 49.5$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.28 | 210 | 59.5%125 W · 85 L | +17.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0c69…2b8dbacked Over | 48c | 46.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 693 | 50.4%349 W · 344 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd730…1948backed Under | 53c | 43.5$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.44 | 196 | 53.1%104 W · 92 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9487…54bbbacked Over | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 362 | 48.6%176 W · 186 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed Under | 54c | 29.71$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.65 | 200 | 51.5%103 W · 97 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe026…0404backed Under | 52c | 27.94$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.41 | 123 | 55.3%68 W · 55 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kentucky Wildcats vs. Vanderbilt Commodores: O/U 157.5this page
- Kentucky Wildcats vs. Vanderbilt CommodoresVanderbilt Commodores won
- Spread: Vanderbilt Commodores (-6.5)Vanderbilt Commodores won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.