Valorant · resolved market
Valorant: Natus Vincere vs Karmine Corp (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifier Stage 1
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8a66aae3bc718d33cfc4a35e8cf754707fc1d7c763c0791ff265600c3e76b100
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Natus Vincereof Natus Vincere, Karmine Corp
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,491
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,492
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,491 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Valorant | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee8e…0a7bbacked Karmine Corp | 44c | 14,083$6,156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,155.55 | 781 | 62%484 W · 297 L | +16.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba38…e406backed Natus Vincere | 56c | 13,160$7,383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,777.27 | 547 | 51.2%280 W · 267 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30c7…ac3bbacked Karmine Corp | 41c | 11,048$4,479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,478.58 | 289 | 55.7%161 W · 128 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaf…d959backed Karmine Corp | 44c | 3,182$1,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,400 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3542…c3c8backed Natus Vincere | 57c | 2,000$1,140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$860 | 285 | 48.4%138 W · 147 L | +14.4wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +16%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd02a…4771backed Natus Vincere | 59c | 1,932$1,140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$792.2 | 73 | 47.9%35 W · 38 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17cd…7423backed Natus Vincere | 60c | 1,833$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$733.24 | 121 | 38.8%47 W · 74 L | -8.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x48b8…4b69backed Karmine Corp | 41c | 1,527$626 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$626.08 | 112 | 55.4%62 W · 50 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6277…5a3fbacked Natus Vincere | 61c | 1,339$814 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$524.73 | 287 | 47.4%136 W · 151 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Natus Vincere | 59c | 1,295$762 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$533.24 | 1,276 | 32.1%409 W · 867 L | -67.5wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb57f…0c96backed Natus Vincere | 59c | 1,264$746 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$518.13 | 158 | 43%68 W · 90 L | -12.1wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -17%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2d29…8264backed Natus Vincere | 59c | 1,000$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.27per pick | 67cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45fa…f86fbacked Natus Vincere | 59c | 902.44$532 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 48cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed Natus Vincere | 57c | 877$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.11 | 256 | 60.9%156 W · 100 L | +22.5wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x36b6…d248backed Natus Vincere | 59c | 847.46$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.46 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1065…6218backed Natus Vincere | 60c | 742.62$446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.05 | 176 | 40.3%71 W · 105 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1cb…2345backed Natus Vincere | 57c | 700$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | +5.4wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5839…3fa8backed Natus Vincere | 59c | 641.51$381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.8 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Karmine Corp | 43c | 611.56$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.97 | 74 | 45.9%34 W · 40 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb46…3692backed Natus Vincere | 60c | 499$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.6 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3449…4030backed Natus Vincere | 62c | 432.26$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.26 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | -5.1wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d54…4d13backed Karmine Corp | 38c | 424.76$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.41 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.32per pick | 39cpaid | +65.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b55…d74bbacked Karmine Corp | 38c | 400$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152 | 867 | 47.5%412 W · 455 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Karmine Corp | 19c | 375$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.53 | 425 | 40.5%172 W · 253 L | -22.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Natus Vincere | 59c | 352.94$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.71 | 415 | 37.1%154 W · 261 L | -26.8wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xebb4…1374backed Natus Vincere | 57c | 344.99$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.35 | 56 | 58.9%33 W · 23 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Natus Vincere | 57c | 300$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129 | 533 | 55.3%295 W · 238 L | +24.0wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82dc…5700backed Natus Vincere | 57c | 300$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129 | 563 | 57.9%326 W · 237 L | +36.3wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d16…821abacked Natus Vincere | 57c | 268.17$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.97 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d70…fdd9backed Natus Vincere | 79c | 250$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 452 | 50%226 W · 226 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f2…aeb7backed Natus Vincere | 59c | 247$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.27 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd273…9a33backed Natus Vincere | 59c | 245.27$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.56 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2655…eaa4backed Karmine Corp | 43c | 234.72$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 79 | 30.4%24 W · 55 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked Karmine Corp | 42c | 226.84$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.48 | 337 | 53.1%179 W · 158 L | +16.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cb…f7dbbacked Karmine Corp | 38c | 199.99$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.99 | 162 | 41.4%67 W · 95 L | -11.3wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6684…95d1backed Natus Vincere | 68c | 147.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.06 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 61cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf04…ad65backed Karmine Corp | 31c | 135.13$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.38 | 285 | 41.1%117 W · 168 L | -26.4wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb777…3ff9backed Natus Vincere | 57c | 126.58$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.43 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8726…0f36backed Natus Vincere | 56c | 114$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.16 | 230 | 55.7%128 W · 102 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0862…dc29backed Natus Vincere | 59c | 102.44$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.61 | 193 | 37.8%73 W · 120 L | -11.8wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4572…47e7backed Karmine Corp | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 252 | 45.2%114 W · 138 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe32a…cd33backed Natus Vincere | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 430 | 59.8%257 W · 173 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b59…0ba0backed Natus Vincere | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 192 | 40.1%77 W · 115 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae8e…08f9backed Karmine Corp | 43c | 99.97$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.99 | 121 | 57%69 W · 52 L | +7.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Natus Vincere | 58c | 85.04$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.57 | 147 | 29.9%44 W · 103 L | -19.2wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5747…7fdfbacked Natus Vincere | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 628 | 56.4%354 W · 274 L | -10.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Natus Vincere | 69c | 71.45$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.25 | 1,608 | 45.2%727 W · 881 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Karmine Corp | 41c | 70$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.7 | 636 | 52.7%335 W · 301 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff09…80b5backed Karmine Corp | 44c | 66.59$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.3 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38b7…cfa7backed Natus Vincere | 57c | 62$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.66 | 62 | 50%31 W · 31 L | -5.1wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Natus Vincere | 56c | 60.18$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.48 | 517 | 49.5%256 W · 261 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x596f…14eabacked Karmine Corp | 42c | 59.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebff…70e5backed Karmine Corp | 18c | 58.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 779 | 29.5%230 W · 549 L | -72.4wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -39%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xce18…aff0backed Natus Vincere | 60c | 49$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.37 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +3.1wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Natus Vincere | 60c | 46$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.36 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a90…1dddbacked Natus Vincere | 59c | 45.82$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.79 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e24…b6d5backed Natus Vincere | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -4.8wins | -0.12per pick | 58cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Natus Vincere | 58c | 28.51$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.84 | 848 | 38.2%324 W · 524 L | -50.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf5…e7c3backed Natus Vincere | 62c | 25.15$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.56 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40f6…8658backed Natus Vincere | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…3d0ebacked Natus Vincere | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 13 | 92.3%12 W · 1 L | +4.5wins | +0.35per pick | 58cpaid | +59%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Valorant: Natus Vincere vs Karmine Corp (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifier Stage 1this page
- Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Karmine Corp (+1.5)Natus Vincere won
- Valorant: Natus Vincere vs Karmine Corp - Map 2 WinnerNatus Vincere won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.