South American Leagues · resolved market
CS Cienciano vs. CA Juventud: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8a680b0d16a6d9dc49db5267d2c8f4f5af16f186c7d055f93e39204679d547f1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,846
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,830
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,846 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 51c | 4,008$2,033 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,974.71 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05e3…4b87backed Over | 50c | 4,000$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 171 | 46.2%79 W · 92 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 46c | 3,522$1,635 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,635.37 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 55c | 2,429$1,336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,336.24 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf658…655ebacked Under | 53c | 2,280$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,079.56 | 110 | 55.5%61 W · 49 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x433c…81eabacked Under | 50c | 1,569$784 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$784.39 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +3.5wins | +0.21per pick | 56cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2fcb…78cfbacked Under | 45c | 1,200$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$660 | 110 | 59.1%65 W · 45 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46cd…6b95backed Over | 40c | 1,190$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.76 | 123 | 40.7%50 W · 73 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca3…f975backed Under | 45c | 631.19$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.11 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa374…9709backed Under | 46c | 600$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed07…886abacked Over | 49c | 599.97$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.98 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 59c | 457.99$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.9 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 48c | 357.82$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.75 | 1,302 | 50.2%653 W · 649 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Over | 49c | 300$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 109 | 22%24 W · 85 L | -9.0wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -37%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 43c | 290$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.3 | 1,651 | 50.6%836 W · 815 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 54c | 283.08$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.87 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 45c | 154.99$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.63 | 2,335 | 51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 56c | 147.85$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.73 | 1,443 | 45.9%662 W · 781 L | -22.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…5998backed Over | 66c | 144.92$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.92 | 174 | 40.2%70 W · 104 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Under | 50c | 130$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 228 | 53.1%121 W · 107 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Under | 45c | 125$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.93 | 235 | 49.4%116 W · 119 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb9…2772backed Over | 42c | 118.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.46 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1440…1a39backed Under | 48c | 111.88$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.18 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Under | 51c | 89.47$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.84 | 258 | 66.3%171 W · 87 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc46e…9ed8backed Under | 38c | 65.78$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.78 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +7.4wins | +0.14per pick | 38cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd764…ae83backed Under | 54c | 55.59$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.59 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9df2…99f5backed Over | 46c | 54.34$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 181 | 40.3%73 W · 108 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfaa…28f7backed Over | 49c | 49.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa402…d14bbacked Over | 29c | 46.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2827…64f6backed Under | 32c | 46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 118 | 64.4%76 W · 42 L | +8.0wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee01…b01fbacked Under | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +3.0wins | +0.30per pick | 50cpaid | +68.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8de7…61c0backed Over | 50c | 37.26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc482…f0bebacked Over | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 65 | 44.6%29 W · 36 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 76c | 26.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 1,253 | 56.2%704 W · 549 L | +73.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f9…29a9backed Under | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.06 | 209 | 58.4%122 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7891…c020backed Over | 50c | 22.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Over | 54c | 19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 787 | 56.4%444 W · 343 L | +23.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CS Cienciano vs. CA Juventud: O/U 2.5this page
- CS Cienciano vs. CA Juventud: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- CS Cienciano vs. CA Juventud: O/U 0.5Over won
- CS Cienciano vs. CA Juventud: O/U 1.5Over won
- CS Cienciano vs. CA Juventud: O/U 3.5Under won
- CS Cienciano vs. CA Juventud: O/U 4.5Under won
- CS Cienciano vs. CA Juventud: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: CS Cienciano (-1.5)CA Juventud won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.