South American Leagues · resolved market
Spread: CA River Plate (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8a742dacf778b24909da59bfe03336163623520646ac4defcb2429a30569988d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- CA River Plateof CA River Plate, CA Aldosivi
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,387
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,766
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,387 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x12b9…3ec2backed CA River Plate | 47c | 1,500$705 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$794.99 | 308 | 41.2%127 W · 181 L | +9.5wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bc2…4c80backed CA River Plate | 50c | 774.06$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.03 | 95 | 62.1%59 W · 36 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed CA River Plate | 6c | 765.22$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$719.31 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed CA Aldosivi | 56c | 542.29$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.89 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed CA River Plate | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe75e…4b67backed CA Aldosivi | 50c | 485$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.5 | 183 | 58.5%107 W · 76 L | +6.8wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked CA River Plate | 39c | 326.99$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.46 | 140 | 22.1%31 W · 109 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…041bbacked CA Aldosivi | 50c | 250$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 216 | 57.9%125 W · 91 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed CA River Plate | 50c | 248.06$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.99 | 71 | 49.3%35 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8796…c744backed CA River Plate | 38c | 194$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.28 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.3wins | -0.19per pick | 49cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8f8b…9e2dbacked CA Aldosivi | 50c | 194$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 158 | 57.6%91 W · 67 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed CA Aldosivi | 59c | 165.25$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.01 | 1,070 | 47.4%507 W · 563 L | -46.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked CA Aldosivi | 53c | 102.83$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.5 | 477 | 58.1%277 W · 200 L | +8.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed CA River Plate | 51c | 87.17$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.98 | 193 | 56%108 W · 85 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed CA River Plate | 41c | 70.58$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.64 | 769 | 51.5%396 W · 373 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd454…b47fbacked CA Aldosivi | 50c | 62$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -31%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked CA River Plate | 50c | 60.14$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.07 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x606f…b043backed CA Aldosivi | 50c | 54.24$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.12 | 165 | 59.4%98 W · 67 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x55e7…4fb9backed CA Aldosivi | 52c | 46.67$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.27 | 65 | 41.5%27 W · 38 L | -9.0wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa975…42eebacked CA River Plate | 51c | 45.33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.21 | 199 | 55.8%111 W · 88 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed CA River Plate | 44c | 43$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.08 | 992 | 59.1%586 W · 406 L | +108.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked CA Aldosivi | 56c | 41.86$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.44 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a4…d8b4backed CA River Plate | 51c | 38.06$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.65 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35d1…1f70backed CA River Plate | 51c | 38.06$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.65 | 197 | 61.9%122 W · 75 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5308…3221backed CA River Plate | 51c | 29.11$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.26 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.17per pick | 60cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4215…f03abacked CA Aldosivi | 52c | 28.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7584…03d1backed CA River Plate | 48c | 27.73$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.42 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked CA Aldosivi | 53c | 27.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 258 | 64.3%166 W · 92 L | +8.1wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: CA River Plate (-1.5)this page
- CA River Plate vs. CA Aldosivi: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- CA River Plate vs. CA Aldosivi: O/U 1.5Over won
- CA River Plate vs. CA Aldosivi: O/U 2.5Over won
- CA River Plate vs. CA Aldosivi: O/U 3.5Over won
- CA River Plate vs. CA Aldosivi: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.