College Football · resolved market
Will BYU beat Arizona?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8a78dfdc51ade21dda550e0f3569460ea752d17deb526017b56afebd43445dcb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- BYUof BYU, Arizona
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,075
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,826
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,075 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4a64…4430backed Arizona | 30c | 1,833$559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$558.72 | 203 | 41.9%85 W · 118 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe41a…a42dbacked Arizona | 41c | 1,248$517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$517.21 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3168…6734backed BYU | 52c | 1,143$591 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$552.5 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed BYU | 59c | 1,000$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410 | 398 | 47.7%190 W · 208 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e1…921ebacked BYU | 79c | 848.89$670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.4 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed BYU | 58c | 555$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.1 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa03b…c3f1backed BYU | 79c | 460$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbd…af92backed Arizona | 42c | 438.55$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.41 | 96 | 49%47 W · 49 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff9c…2c98backed Arizona | 43c | 199$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.57 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +61.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6650…d38ebacked BYU | 56c | 181.11$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.1 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbb…a8fbbacked BYU | 59c | 150$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.5 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x660f…ec30backed BYU | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa45…0eb0backed Arizona | 45c | 88.89$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecf8…494ebacked BYU | 59c | 85.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x802b…cb49backed Arizona | 44c | 85.43$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed BYU | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 188 | 58%109 W · 79 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked BYU | 56c | 47.73$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 88 | 51.1%45 W · 43 L | +9.3wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2376…30f5backed Arizona | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47dc…eec9backed Arizona | 70c | 42.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.7wins | -0.38per pick | 67cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x486c…3d03backed Arizona | 45c | 41.11$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Arizona | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 473 | 31.5%149 W · 324 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0328…d834backed Arizona | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…df2fbacked BYU | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57fa…51c4backed BYU | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will BYU beat Arizona?this page
- Will BYU beat Arizona by 4 or more points?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.