Tennis · resolved market
Asuncion: Alex Barrena vs Juan Pablo Varillas
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8a88e0ef67947690e3ff3c7e4c5872b58d04c2d6f1c3b2f68d756397df12a69f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Juan Pablo Varillasof Alex Barrena, Juan Pablo Varillas
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,869
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,869 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x713b…ee60backed Alex Barrena | 41c | 7,403$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 56 | 28.6%16 W · 40 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Juan Pablo Varillas | 62c | 3,492$2,148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,344.33 | 2,746 | 30.8%846 W · 1,900 L | -67.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…d43cbacked Juan Pablo Varillas | 73c | 3,233$2,365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$868.73 | 6,599 | 50.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L | +259.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Juan Pablo Varillas | 64c | 2,141$1,369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$771.91 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x223f…2050backed Alex Barrena | 30c | 2,139$642 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$641.56 | 507 | 31.2%158 W · 349 L | -41.2wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Alex Barrena | 22c | 1,076$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.58 | 389 | 31.4%122 W · 267 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Juan Pablo Varillas | 79c | 1,057$840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.34 | 809 | 38.8%314 W · 495 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Juan Pablo Varillas | 71c | 1,046$747 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.37 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80ef…3973backed Alex Barrena | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9694…b7adbacked Juan Pablo Varillas | 54c | 734.01$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.01 | 2,058 | 59.5%1,225 W · 833 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x691a…d113backed Alex Barrena | 26c | 703$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.78 | 389 | 55.3%215 W · 174 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf93d…fc9bbacked Alex Barrena | 47c | 676.15$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.55 | 223 | 52%116 W · 107 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb31…7b95backed Alex Barrena | 15c | 667$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 680 | 26.2%178 W · 502 L | -24.5wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5af…f9e3backed Alex Barrena | 19c | 633.89$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 302 | 25.8%78 W · 224 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Alex Barrena | 32c | 534.38$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171 | 4,934 | 41.5%2,048 W · 2,886 L | -77.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Alex Barrena | 25c | 492.83$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.59 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd038…8f51backed Alex Barrena | 32c | 300$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 4,288 | 40.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L | -139.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Juan Pablo Varillas | 60c | 286.48$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.97 | 3,072 | 44.9%1,378 W · 1,694 L | -30.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Juan Pablo Varillas | 74c | 266.64$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.84 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Alex Barrena | 24c | 253.01$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.19 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf026…8df7backed Alex Barrena | 22c | 245$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.27 | 373 | 42.6%159 W · 214 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…f7fcbacked Alex Barrena | 24c | 238$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.02 | 990 | 44.8%444 W · 546 L | -10.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e56…8243backed Juan Pablo Varillas | 55c | 222.6$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.17 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.19per pick | 39cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…5e8abacked Alex Barrena | 7c | 199.87$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 118 | 26.3%31 W · 87 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Alex Barrena | 28c | 180$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.02 | 559 | 41.9%234 W · 325 L | -27.0wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Alex Barrena | 17c | 138.75$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.69 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Alex Barrena | 38c | 132.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,266 | 34.2%433 W · 833 L | -43.2wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1df2…89a0backed Alex Barrena | 17c | 116.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.82 | 2,065 | 35.2%727 W · 1,338 L | -52.7wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd5…11bbbacked Juan Pablo Varillas | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 121 | 42.1%51 W · 70 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x27f3…8382backed Juan Pablo Varillas | 55c | 90.87$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.87 | 218 | 47.2%103 W · 115 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e3d…bbfabacked Juan Pablo Varillas | 75c | 90.48$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.3 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d40…ef02backed Alex Barrena | 47c | 85.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x70ac…0c7dbacked Alex Barrena | 47c | 82.03$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.45 | 2,537 | 53.6%1,361 W · 1,176 L | +61.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Alex Barrena | 25c | 81.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.04 | 2,343 | 51.6%1,209 W · 1,134 L | +95.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe761…4f54backed Alex Barrena | 43c | 75$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.88 | 263 | 49.4%130 W · 133 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77d6…81c5backed Alex Barrena | 20c | 75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c9…247dbacked Juan Pablo Varillas | 55c | 72.88$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.88 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Alex Barrena | 28c | 68.17$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.16 | 3,270 | 13.8%450 W · 2,820 L | -549.1wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x67b5…7276backed Alex Barrena | 39c | 64.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 271 | 47.2%128 W · 143 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb69f…d51cbacked Alex Barrena | 30c | 59.57$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.87 | 147 | 52.4%77 W · 70 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd141…205cbacked Alex Barrena | 37c | 55.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.48 | 91 | 22%20 W · 71 L | -8.7wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -36%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd88a…1eefbacked Alex Barrena | 45c | 54$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 544 | 34.2%186 W · 358 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Alex Barrena | 39c | 34.43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 1,245 | 51.9%646 W · 599 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Juan Pablo Varillas | 53c | 32.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.51 | 1,809 | 43.8%793 W · 1,016 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd866…55e0backed Alex Barrena | 37c | 27.86$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 384 | 60.4%232 W · 152 L | +29.2wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2f31…e2b6backed Juan Pablo Varillas | 74c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 355 | 59.4%211 W · 144 L | -10.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38d5…865bbacked Juan Pablo Varillas | 76c | 24.84$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.96 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Juan Pablo Varillas | 79c | 18.82$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Asuncion: Alex Barrena vs Juan Pablo Varillasthis page
- Alex Barrena vs. Juan Pablo Varillas: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.