NFL · resolved market
Lions vs. Steelers
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8aa01c2023dec214914bb4b80d48ab4a0c48cdc2d99e055f566936423f16b999
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Lionsof Lions, Steelers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,103
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,098
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,103 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3b9e…74aebacked Lions | 23c | 6,276$1,462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,814.54 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f91…907fbacked Steelers | 72c | 3,500$2,520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,520 | 128 | 43.8%56 W · 72 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a14…0762backed Lions | 39c | 1,536$594 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$941.81 | 102 | 39.2%40 W · 62 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…1e98backed Steelers | 61c | 1,200$736 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$736.3 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcede…f2f6backed Lions | 29c | 1,101$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$786.48 | 90 | 22.2%20 W · 70 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe91…70ffbacked Steelers | 72c | 838.3$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600.41 | 137 | 51.8%71 W · 66 L | +6.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…e17ebacked Steelers | 73c | 781$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570.13 | 92 | 40.2%37 W · 55 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd028…75f5backed Lions | 77c | 528.68$407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.6 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75c7…5ef8backed Lions | 14c | 500$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccd3…389cbacked Steelers | 77c | 317.39$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.09 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -42%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed Lions | 27c | 300$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | +8.8wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbd93…990dbacked Steelers | 71c | 269.51$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x542c…f12bbacked Lions | 27c | 249.99$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.49 | 97 | 24.7%24 W · 73 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9193…c86cbacked Steelers | 60c | 189.99$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.49 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecbe…42ffbacked Steelers | 16c | 183.34$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.72 | 333 | 28.5%95 W · 238 L | +16.7wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc417…3ca6backed Steelers | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 60 | 50%30 W · 30 L | -6.6wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked Lions | 27c | 111$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.03 | 324 | 38%123 W · 201 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf612…5700backed Lions | 28c | 111$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.92 | 207 | 36.2%75 W · 132 L | -13.3wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -23%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x216e…6501backed Lions | 29c | 100$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6248…51cfbacked Lions | 32c | 43.1$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.43 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51cc…8839backed Steelers | 72c | 27.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 67cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Steelers | 70c | 17.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 94 | 45.7%43 W · 51 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b06…0b42backed Steelers | 71c | 17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90db…46cbbacked Steelers | 68c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.