Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on April 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8ab77f8474c74dda6ee5669c240479c2bc392e1429dfa902abf10a2c3e3dd29d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,423
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,945
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,423 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 23c | 575.02$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.05 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8adf…48cdbacked Yes | 2c | 485.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -6.2wins | -0.22per pick | 53cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 23c | 305.95$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.12 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 36c | 299.95$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.98 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3e…e0f1backed Yes | 20c | 248.43$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 80 | 13.8%11 W · 69 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cad…e203backed Yes | 5c | 236.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 13c | 220.68$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.49 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 19c | 178.03$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.06 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 11c | 150$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 21c | 142.1$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.36 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 21c | 140.21$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.55 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 18c | 137.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.1 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1de…aadfbacked No | 71c | 125.08$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.73 | 63 | 76.2%48 W · 15 L | +7.8wins | +0.12per pick | 64cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e3…a50cbacked Yes | 17c | 122.76$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.86 | 214 | 36%77 W · 137 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 77c | 118.61$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.27 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 22c | 118.02$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.96 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc80…56a7backed Yes | 14c | 117.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.41 | 164 | 12.2%20 W · 144 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 13c | 101.89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53a0…1907backed Yes | 14c | 98.37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 73 | 9.6%7 W · 66 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 25c | 89.08$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.67 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked No | 72c | 86.54$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.34 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 20c | 82.22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.14 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 24c | 78.2$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.47 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x099d…8468backed Yes | 39c | 75.15$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.58 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.31per pick | 43cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdda3…d55fbacked Yes | 38c | 74.64$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.59 | 75 | 42.7%32 W · 43 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9003…4c59backed Yes | 22c | 70.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 85 | 31.8%27 W · 58 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa17…aa48backed Yes | 30c | 67.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 122 | 26.2%32 W · 90 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 18cpaid | +133.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9480…6797backed Yes | 20c | 67.15$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 28c | 65.25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.57 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe11d…44ecbacked No | 40c | 63.13$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.88 | 180 | 41.7%75 W · 105 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc474…d697backed Yes | 19c | 63.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 25c | 59.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e66…52f5backed Yes | 31c | 44.46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 67 | 20.9%14 W · 53 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7754…278dbacked Yes | 24c | 42.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -4.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 72c | 41.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 76c | 39.58$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.56 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd04c…c640backed No | 79c | 37.17$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.81 | 233 | 49.8%116 W · 117 L | -15.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -27%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43b6…77a7backed No | 53c | 35.65$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.58 | 93 | 44.1%41 W · 52 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 75c | 28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75d3…3f0ebacked No | 77c | 25.76$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.99 | 209 | 58.4%122 W · 87 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 78c | 23.29$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.14 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 79c | 22.52$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13f3…d427backed No | 70c | 21.66$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 326 | 69%225 W · 101 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28d2…5621backed No | 76c | 18.79$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.51 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24b7…4a73backed No | 74c | 18.51$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.81 | 32 | 78.1%25 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 69cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c31…68a1backed No | 80c | 18.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.7 | 195 | 47.2%92 W · 103 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 79c | 18.19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.76 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed No | 60c | 16.9$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.68 | 350 | 58.3%204 W · 146 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed No | 70c | 15.77$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.73 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on April 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 45°F or below on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 64°F or higher on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 50-51°F on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on April 13?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 58-59°F on April 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.