Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on April 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7136447c8becb2552c48ab1169b59a9b1824455df2b346a7eafadecd61c41ab0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,537
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,685
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,537 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 400$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 76c | 263.15$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.16 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 33c | 256.74$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.68 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 76c | 222.09$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.85 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 25c | 220.03$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.4 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 23c | 198.04$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.55 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 22c | 191.44$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 25c | 172.83$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.57 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 23c | 169.5$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.7 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 20c | 149.54$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.68 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 21c | 130.27$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.73 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 11c | 126.34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 73c | 124.82$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.97 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 24c | 118.27$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.39 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 20c | 108.89$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.14 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x292a…5d78backed No | 74c | 98.93$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.85 | 93 | 33.3%31 W · 62 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -26%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd38…ddadbacked No | 76c | 89.96$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.46 | 254 | 49.2%125 W · 129 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce42…9090backed No | 66c | 87.82$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f8a…b076backed Yes | 24c | 83.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 208 | 35.6%74 W · 134 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 77c | 73.79$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.63 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 70c | 72.76$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.73 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa55a…0c43backed Yes | 20c | 65.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 68 | 27.9%19 W · 49 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe664…2db8backed Yes | 17c | 64.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 24c | 63.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7f…0abbbacked Yes | 30c | 62.89$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 189 | 48.1%91 W · 98 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 28c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 22c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c31…68a1backed No | 77c | 58.11$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.56 | 195 | 47.2%92 W · 103 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 21c | 56.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8208…a737backed No | 78c | 53.64$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.93 | 226 | 75.7%171 W · 55 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef3…ac46backed Yes | 30c | 53.58$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 194 | 49%95 W · 99 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…c396backed Yes | 25c | 52.84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 232 | 41.8%97 W · 135 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 77c | 51.25$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.69 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa17…aa48backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 122 | 26.2%32 W · 90 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 18cpaid | +133.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 22c | 49.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7754…278dbacked Yes | 25c | 49.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -4.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f6…eadabacked No | 79c | 46.49$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.96 | 165 | 75.8%125 W · 40 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc52a…e37abacked No | 79c | 44.79$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.26 | 182 | 72%131 W · 51 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 24c | 44.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…5b28backed No | 78c | 42.36$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.13 | 265 | 66.4%176 W · 89 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd04c…c640backed No | 78c | 37.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.35 | 233 | 49.8%116 W · 117 L | -15.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -27%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x95b8…95c4backed No | 80c | 35.09$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 37 | 75.7%28 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc52f…0981backed No | 76c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 146 | 71.2%104 W · 42 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a9…75f9backed No | 78c | 32.75$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 262 | 53.4%140 W · 122 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1230…8e43backed No | 79c | 31.14$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 151 | 55.6%84 W · 67 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa972…40c2backed No | 70c | 27.71$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 63cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x31e2…a655backed No | 79c | 24.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.29 | 62 | 75.8%47 W · 15 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked No | 77c | 24.74$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.69 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x87a2…2250backed No | 77c | 22.61$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 170 | 66.5%113 W · 57 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 78c | 22.1$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.78 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13f3…d427backed No | 72c | 21.04$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 326 | 69%225 W · 101 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…4edcbacked No | 76c | 19.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 58 | 74.1%43 W · 15 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 69cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3887…9496backed No | 77c | 19.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 243 | 70%170 W · 73 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1e…9095backed No | 77c | 19.03$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.38 | 173 | 76.3%132 W · 41 L | +11.7wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 77c | 18.76$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.31 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1efd…2cbdbacked No | 77c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.68 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a62…ace3backed No | 80c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.6 | 49 | 61.2%30 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on April 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 45°F or below on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 64°F or higher on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 50-51°F on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on April 13?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 58-59°F on April 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.