TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on April 13?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$44,805
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$47,200

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,805 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 96 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x425d…6cb0backed No0c18,090$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.0925344.7%113 W · 140 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes40c397.93$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.6317,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes63c382.4$243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.5865749.8%327 W · 330 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x019c…1e16backed No64c339.86$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.361330.8%4 W · 9 L-3.1wins-0.24per pick54cpaid-53.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9c31…68a1backed No17c315.02$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.8519547.2%92 W · 103 L-9.0wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-4.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No18c305.58$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.4312,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x672f…13ccbacked Yes65c299.26$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.9633058.8%194 W · 136 L+10.8wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2df9…effbbacked No69c289.75$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.1411659.5%69 W · 47 L-6.0wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-14.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6517…573fbacked No59c271.93$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.114452.3%23 W · 21 L-3.8wins-0.09per pick61cpaid-20.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes39c265.56$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.811,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked No20c262.52$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.2860121%126 W · 475 L-25.4wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-42.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes34c243.62$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.499,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No56c206.93$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.281,42058.7%833 W · 587 L+69.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2079…ca17backed Yes35c202.34$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.419626%25 W · 71 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x951c…d8c7backed Yes42c198.49$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.1368335.4%242 W · 441 L-0.6wins0.00per pick36cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes33c188.46$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.698,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5757…9e19backed No47c162.42$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.8145162.1%280 W · 171 L+19.8wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes37c160.51$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.521,29833.1%430 W · 868 L+39.5wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x099d…8468backed No46c141.11$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.53812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.5wins-0.31per pick43cpaid-81.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No30c140.33$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.12,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes57c137.25$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.455,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9631…a38cbacked Yes32c119.3$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.1249750.3%250 W · 247 L+20.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+24.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes51c118.49$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.344,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x74ea…b265backed Yes40c113.52$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.1321142.7%90 W · 121 L+8.9wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x82f3…9f82backed No12c112.84$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.11,45524.7%359 W · 1,096 L-33.3wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x309c…09b5backed No64c100.34$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.1728839.9%115 W · 173 L-13.1wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-8.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe7c9…d2b8backed No16c97.89$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.2653547.5%254 W · 281 L-8.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x75d3…3f0ebacked No64c97.58$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.2520958.4%122 W · 87 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No41c94.6$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.4712,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x43b6…77a7backed Yes52c91.4$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.89344.1%41 W · 52 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd04c…c640backed No49c70.45$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.8623349.8%116 W · 117 L-15.7wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-27%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb627…d968backed No17c70.26$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.157846.2%36 W · 42 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+11.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x16d9…f0b0backed Yes43c69.6$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.7828648.3%138 W · 148 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+0.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf31…454abacked No58c67.23$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.9919152.9%101 W · 90 L-7.7wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No51c66.16$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.814,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84dd…9757backed No60c64.22$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.41478.6%11 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.12per pick67cpaid+15.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8ef3…ac46backed Yes45c63.29$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.7319449%95 W · 99 L+0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe00a…330ebacked Yes45c62.41$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.0320750.2%104 W · 103 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c7e…c08ebacked No70c62.12$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.6657038.1%217 W · 353 L-40.7wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-33%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes39c58$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.183,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes34c56.88$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.47,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe509…7387backed Yes27c51.91$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.912722.2%6 W · 21 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-17.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c49.98$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.992,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1098…10a7backed Yes35c49.96$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.4841733.8%141 W · 276 L-17.0wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-9.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x35c4…d144backed Yes68c48.69$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.351,25562.5%785 W · 470 L+99.5wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+16.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0f18…5b28backed Yes42c47.94$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.9926566.4%176 W · 89 L+13.0wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+6.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa55a…0c43backed Yes44c47.72$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.726827.9%19 W · 49 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-25.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x85ca…c3e7backed Yes35c46.77$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.21119.1%1 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick18cpaid-74.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x652d…6063backed No44c44.3$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.79322.6%21 W · 72 L-8.1wins-0.09per pick31cpaid-32.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc342…c744backed No55c43.81$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.095349.1%26 W · 27 L-3.2wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-10.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked No60c42.87$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.552,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc45…2957backed Yes58c41.44$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.53237.5%12 W · 20 L-2.9wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-33.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa98a…a5a8backed No60c40.61$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.372,01567.7%1,365 W · 650 L+1.8wins0.00per pick68cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes47c40$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.281029.1%236 W · 574 L-14.4wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x843d…89bcbacked Yes63c38.5$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.423661.1%22 W · 14 L+4.1wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+17.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes46c36.7$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.6632352.9%171 W · 152 L+19.6wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+9.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x51b3…16a2backed Yes44c35.87$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.093630.6%11 W · 25 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick25cpaid+18.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb1e3…a50cbacked Yes64c34$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.3121436%77 W · 137 L+0.9wins0.00per pick36cpaid-14%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes44c32.96$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.4656131.7%178 W · 383 L+2.6wins0.00per pick31cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x35e6…7a4dbacked No61c32.72$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.911,69960.6%1,029 W · 670 L-24.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b13…6e6abacked Yes38c32.19$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.853138.7%12 W · 19 L+2.1wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+3.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdfca…645abacked No68c31.95$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.7914025.7%36 W · 104 L-9.3wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-23.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6400…331abacked Yes39c31.56$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.1142469.1%293 W · 131 L+8.4wins+0.02per pick67cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc323…4408backed No63c29.72$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.833567.5%226 W · 109 L-6.3wins-0.02per pick69cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x58e6…9ac7backed No51c29.21$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9819753.8%106 W · 91 L-12.7wins-0.06per pick60cpaid-12.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8ae3…3401backed Yes66c28.85$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.6727463.9%175 W · 99 L-15.0wins-0.05per pick69cpaid-8.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5aa4…fc3dbacked No59c28.77$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.9427756%155 W · 122 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa661…9d2ebacked No45c28.35$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.761442.9%6 W · 8 L-2.0wins-0.14per pick57cpaid-31.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x02ae…890cbacked Yes70c27.04$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.114233.3%14 W · 28 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-29.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb3e3…fcacbacked No63c26.89$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.851662.5%10 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick62cpaid-8.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x85c7…ea4ebacked Yes60c25.78$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.41258.3%7 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick62cpaid-13%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa972…40c2backed No56c25.67$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.34837.5%3 W · 5 L-2.0wins-0.25per pick63cpaid-48.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4302…8d4fbacked No60c25.56$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.468253.7%44 W · 38 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9954…b725backed No63c25.04$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.778360.2%50 W · 33 L-5.4wins-0.07per pick67cpaid-7.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1c71…431fbacked Yes59c24.76$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.132969%20 W · 9 L+2.7wins+0.09per pick60cpaid+19.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe57d…043abacked No62c24$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.888746%40 W · 47 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick48cpaid+1.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9eb5…3253backed No54c23.08$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.461478.6%11 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.11per pick68cpaid+15%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x171c…942dbacked No54c21.71$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.692045%9 W · 11 L-1.8wins-0.09per pick54cpaid-31.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaa17…aa48backed Yes69c21.68$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.7912226.2%32 W · 90 L+10.2wins+0.08per pick18cpaid+133.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xcb81…7b82backed No72c21.42$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.3813053.1%69 W · 61 L-7.2wins-0.06per pick59cpaid+0.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd20f…59d2backed Yes68c21.35$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.83366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd7cf…7825backed No60c20.61$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.3728954.3%157 W · 132 L-8.1wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-6.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe9da…ed70backed No64c20.42$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.0776371.4%545 W · 218 L+11.2wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e99…b482backed Yes50c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1042544%187 W · 238 L+15.1wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+4.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8a62…ace3backed No52c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.44961.2%30 W · 19 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick65cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9765…242ebacked Yes65c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73650%18 W · 18 L-2.6wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-12.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1294…cd72backed No64c19.63$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.567266.7%48 W · 24 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick62cpaid-3.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc7bd…ccfcbacked Yes66c19.57$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.661435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.6wins-0.11per pick47cpaid-24.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes54c19.42$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.8955942.6%238 W · 321 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa717…faeabacked Yes60c19.4$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.7631170.7%220 W · 91 L+42.3wins+0.14per pick57cpaid+30.8%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x24b7…4a73backed No67c19.34$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.963278.1%25 W · 7 L+2.8wins+0.09per pick69cpaid+13.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x64a6…4ac1backed No58c19.16$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.116553.8%35 W · 30 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x26c9…910bbacked Yes54c19.07$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.812075%15 W · 5 L+2.4wins+0.12per pick63cpaid+22.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x47f7…0312backed No60c18.55$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.1314663%92 W · 54 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick65cpaid-1.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked No63c17.99$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.341,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x166a…f4aebacked No73c17.37$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.68560%3 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.13per pick73cpaid-19.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.