Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on April 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb35fd31acd70fcb91bc10310d225705390cde0a9be9f1cc69607059051e8499c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,805
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,200
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,805 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 96 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x425d…6cb0backed No | 0c | 18,090$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.09 | 253 | 44.7%113 W · 140 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 40c | 397.93$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.63 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 63c | 382.4$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.58 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…1e16backed No | 64c | 339.86$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.36 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -3.1wins | -0.24per pick | 54cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9c31…68a1backed No | 17c | 315.02$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.85 | 195 | 47.2%92 W · 103 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 18c | 305.58$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.43 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked Yes | 65c | 299.26$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.96 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…effbbacked No | 69c | 289.75$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.14 | 116 | 59.5%69 W · 47 L | -6.0wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6517…573fbacked No | 59c | 271.93$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.11 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 39c | 265.56$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.81 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 20c | 262.52$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.28 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 34c | 243.62$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.49 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 56c | 206.93$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.28 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2079…ca17backed Yes | 35c | 202.34$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.41 | 96 | 26%25 W · 71 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 42c | 198.49$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.13 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 33c | 188.46$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.69 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 47c | 162.42$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.81 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 37c | 160.51$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.52 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x099d…8468backed No | 46c | 141.11$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.53 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.31per pick | 43cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 140.33$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.1 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 57c | 137.25$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.45 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 32c | 119.3$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.12 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 51c | 118.49$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.34 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74ea…b265backed Yes | 40c | 113.52$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.13 | 211 | 42.7%90 W · 121 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed No | 12c | 112.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x309c…09b5backed No | 64c | 100.34$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.17 | 288 | 39.9%115 W · 173 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 16c | 97.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.26 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75d3…3f0ebacked No | 64c | 97.58$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.25 | 209 | 58.4%122 W · 87 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 41c | 94.6$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.47 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x43b6…77a7backed Yes | 52c | 91.4$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.8 | 93 | 44.1%41 W · 52 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd04c…c640backed No | 49c | 70.45$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.86 | 233 | 49.8%116 W · 117 L | -15.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -27%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb627…d968backed No | 17c | 70.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16d9…f0b0backed Yes | 43c | 69.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.78 | 286 | 48.3%138 W · 148 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf31…454abacked No | 58c | 67.23$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.99 | 191 | 52.9%101 W · 90 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 51c | 66.16$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.81 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84dd…9757backed No | 60c | 64.22$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 67cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef3…ac46backed Yes | 45c | 63.29$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.73 | 194 | 49%95 W · 99 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe00a…330ebacked Yes | 45c | 62.41$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.03 | 207 | 50.2%104 W · 103 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked No | 70c | 62.12$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.66 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 39c | 58$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.18 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 34c | 56.88$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.4 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe509…7387backed Yes | 27c | 51.91$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.91 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 35c | 49.96$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.48 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 68c | 48.69$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.35 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…5b28backed Yes | 42c | 47.94$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.99 | 265 | 66.4%176 W · 89 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa55a…0c43backed Yes | 44c | 47.72$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.72 | 68 | 27.9%19 W · 49 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85ca…c3e7backed Yes | 35c | 46.77$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.21 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 18cpaid | -74.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…6063backed No | 44c | 44.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 93 | 22.6%21 W · 72 L | -8.1wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc342…c744backed No | 55c | 43.81$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.09 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 60c | 42.87$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.55 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc45…2957backed Yes | 58c | 41.44$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 60c | 40.61$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.37 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 47c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x843d…89bcbacked Yes | 63c | 38.5$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.42 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +4.1wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes | 46c | 36.7$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.66 | 323 | 52.9%171 W · 152 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x51b3…16a2backed Yes | 44c | 35.87$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.09 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e3…a50cbacked Yes | 64c | 34$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.31 | 214 | 36%77 W · 137 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 44c | 32.96$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 61c | 32.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.91 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b13…6e6abacked Yes | 38c | 32.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.85 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfca…645abacked No | 68c | 31.95$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.79 | 140 | 25.7%36 W · 104 L | -9.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…331abacked Yes | 39c | 31.56$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.11 | 424 | 69.1%293 W · 131 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 63c | 29.72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58e6…9ac7backed No | 51c | 29.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 197 | 53.8%106 W · 91 L | -12.7wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…3401backed Yes | 66c | 28.85$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.67 | 274 | 63.9%175 W · 99 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa4…fc3dbacked No | 59c | 28.77$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.94 | 277 | 56%155 W · 122 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa661…9d2ebacked No | 45c | 28.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x02ae…890cbacked Yes | 70c | 27.04$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.11 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e3…fcacbacked No | 63c | 26.89$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.85 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85c7…ea4ebacked Yes | 60c | 25.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa972…40c2backed No | 56c | 25.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.34 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 63cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4302…8d4fbacked No | 60c | 25.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.46 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9954…b725backed No | 63c | 25.04$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.77 | 83 | 60.2%50 W · 33 L | -5.4wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c71…431fbacked Yes | 59c | 24.76$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.13 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe57d…043abacked No | 62c | 24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 87 | 46%40 W · 47 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eb5…3253backed No | 54c | 23.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 68cpaid | +15%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x171c…942dbacked No | 54c | 21.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa17…aa48backed Yes | 69c | 21.68$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.79 | 122 | 26.2%32 W · 90 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 18cpaid | +133.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcb81…7b82backed No | 72c | 21.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 130 | 53.1%69 W · 61 L | -7.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd20f…59d2backed Yes | 68c | 21.35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.83 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cf…7825backed No | 60c | 20.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 289 | 54.3%157 W · 132 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 64c | 20.42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a62…ace3backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 49 | 61.2%30 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9765…242ebacked Yes | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1294…cd72backed No | 64c | 19.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 72 | 66.7%48 W · 24 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7bd…ccfcbacked Yes | 66c | 19.57$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 54c | 19.42$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.89 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…faeabacked Yes | 60c | 19.4$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.76 | 311 | 70.7%220 W · 91 L | +42.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x24b7…4a73backed No | 67c | 19.34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 32 | 78.1%25 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 69cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x64a6…4ac1backed No | 58c | 19.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26c9…910bbacked Yes | 54c | 19.07$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x47f7…0312backed No | 60c | 18.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 146 | 63%92 W · 54 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 63c | 17.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x166a…f4aebacked No | 73c | 17.37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 73cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on April 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 45°F or below on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 64°F or higher on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 50-51°F on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 58-59°F on April 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.