MLB · resolved market
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8ad3ff36c4591c622f9500e47f3bf5c40792cc133a862198072215882c10a515
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,668
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,573
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,668 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x44b6…672abacked Over | 44c | 1,960$872 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$871.96 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -4.6wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x78b0…9f1abacked Under | 57c | 1,664$948 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$715.46 | 390 | 47.4%185 W · 205 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3df…82fabacked Over | 42c | 1,653$697 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$697.2 | 488 | 50.2%245 W · 243 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 14c | 999.3$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.54 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Under | 55c | 805.48$443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.47 | 1,010 | 48.1%486 W · 524 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 56c | 598.75$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.45 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 67c | 407.69$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.73 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 56c | 388.4$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.9 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x246d…c74dbacked Under | 57c | 366.66$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.2 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad88…3c1ebacked Under | 56c | 350.5$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.22 | 483 | 54.7%264 W · 219 L | +20.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Over | 34c | 298.41$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.46 | 123 | 39%48 W · 75 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 43c | 281.35$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.98 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 66c | 239.93$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.24 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 58c | 204.57$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.55 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 59c | 165.23$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.82 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over | 41c | 146.31$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.36 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Over | 44c | 140$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.6 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Over | 44c | 139.89$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.29 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed Over | 44c | 137$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.28 | 496 | 49.8%247 W · 249 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5719…f37fbacked Over | 44c | 120.05$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.82 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -20%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa20d…eadebacked Over | 45c | 64.47$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.01 | 204 | 46.6%95 W · 109 L | -10.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c97…c20bbacked Under | 56c | 60.85$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.77 | 625 | 54.2%339 W · 286 L | +18.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Over | 36c | 58.66$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Over | 44c | 50.02$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.76 | 272 | 48.5%132 W · 140 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Under | 56c | 44.96$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.78 | 840 | 49.4%415 W · 425 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe503…6d7bbacked Over | 45c | 42.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +5.2wins | +0.24per pick | 49cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x239d…daebbacked Under | 56c | 38.94$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.14 | 303 | 50.8%154 W · 149 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf472…fd6ebacked Over | 41c | 35.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 123 | 49.6%61 W · 62 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed Under | 56c | 34.77$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 465 | 57.2%266 W · 199 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 43c | 34.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Under | 56c | 27.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.08 | 1,029 | 51.2%527 W · 502 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bbd…98f2backed Over | 45c | 26.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 187 | 51.3%96 W · 91 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36aa…a683backed Under | 56c | 26.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 443 | 47.9%212 W · 231 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac24…576ebacked Over | 45c | 23.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 229 | 48%110 W · 119 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Under | 72c | 15.27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.28 | 667 | 49.3%329 W · 338 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5this page
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee BrewersPittsburgh Pirates won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 5.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 6.5Under won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee BrewersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.