MLB · resolved market
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x900875da44b53ba0e6244e65104af946556b770e7179b87452708336a6e6cef1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pittsburgh Piratesof Pittsburgh Pirates, Milwaukee Brewers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,137
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,865
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,137 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x62c0…db73backed Milwaukee Brewers | 68c | 2,214$1,495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,495.02 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 53c | 1,984$1,052 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,051.52 | 11,606 | 52.8%6,131 W · 5,475 L | +210.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 34c | 983.06$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$648.07 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3df…82fabacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 32c | 625$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425 | 488 | 50.2%245 W · 243 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c57…40febacked Milwaukee Brewers | 61c | 590.03$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.92 | 217 | 50.7%110 W · 107 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae51…0d08backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 39c | 530.89$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.84 | 364 | 40.1%146 W · 218 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 34c | 403.62$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.67 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaee4…c3b9backed Milwaukee Brewers | 60c | 244$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.4 | 89 | 59.6%53 W · 36 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Milwaukee Brewers | 60c | 130.13$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.08 | 665 | 51.1%340 W · 325 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 217 | 48.4%105 W · 112 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f97…4059backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 101 | 57.4%58 W · 43 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbca…ca8dbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 60c | 97.6$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.56 | 432 | 47%203 W · 229 L | -19.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Milwaukee Brewers | 63c | 82.97$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.27 | 2,349 | 49.9%1,172 W · 1,177 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf213…a627backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 37c | 76.98$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.49 | 689 | 42.2%291 W · 398 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Milwaukee Brewers | 60c | 65.84$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.25 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb81e…8ab9backed Milwaukee Brewers | 61c | 65.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.91 | 478 | 48.5%232 W · 246 L | -15.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35d1…1f70backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 32c | 59.95$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.77 | 225 | 54.7%123 W · 102 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Milwaukee Brewers | 61c | 56.03$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.18 | 469 | 59.5%279 W · 190 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Milwaukee Brewers | 37c | 53.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.91 | 290 | 47.6%138 W · 152 L | -11.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 40c | 49.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.99 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 41c | 49.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.15 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7716…a68cbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 40c | 48.2$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.92 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x961a…e91cbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 40c | 42.61$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.43 | 69 | 56.5%39 W · 30 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3092…c9a8backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 36c | 41.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.52 | 75 | 56%42 W · 33 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36aa…a683backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 41c | 35.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 443 | 47.9%212 W · 231 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 41c | 34$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.06 | 1,029 | 51.2%527 W · 502 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 76c | 32.81$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 475 | 89.1%423 W · 52 L | +84.9wins | +0.18per pick | 71cpaid | +25%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x50fd…ee77backed Milwaukee Brewers | 60c | 32.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 330 | 51.8%171 W · 159 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 76c | 29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.09 | 419 | 36.5%153 W · 266 L | -31.1wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb39b…14c9backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 38c | 28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.36 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07c9…9f5bbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 60c | 26.03$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 316 | 50.6%160 W · 156 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 61c | 22.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Milwaukee Brewers | 60c | 18.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 9,862 | 46.4%4,579 W · 5,283 L | +40.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)this page
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee BrewersPittsburgh Pirates won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 5.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 6.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee BrewersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.