NHL · resolved market
Spread: Oilers (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8aecafc706b1cd5d8b5268a64681aaa0f58f740b6cee2de61e50771f4cf00e43
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Oilersof Oilers, Jets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,380
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,923
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,380 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Jets | 69c | 1,290$890 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$890.09 | 619 | 59.1%366 W · 253 L | +17.9wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Oilers | 29c | 1,205$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$855.84 | 1,441 | 49.2%709 W · 732 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…0544backed Jets | 69c | 1,000$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$690 | 334 | 47.9%160 W · 174 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2885…486cbacked Oilers | 31c | 1,000$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$690 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9e…0262backed Jets | 70c | 943.44$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660.41 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -3.2wins | -0.15per pick | 54cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Oilers | 31c | 828.96$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$569.91 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Oilers | 30c | 700$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490 | 533 | 37.5%200 W · 333 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97ae…82bdbacked Oilers | 32c | 582.3$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.99 | 56 | 32.1%18 W · 38 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Jets | 68c | 569.05$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.88 | 881 | 51.2%451 W · 430 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1244…c851backed Jets | 68c | 371.61$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.69 | 222 | 48.2%107 W · 115 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Oilers | 29c | 300$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213 | 919 | 45.6%419 W · 500 L | -27.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c82…b56bbacked Oilers | 31c | 153.19$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.7 | 140 | 65.7%92 W · 48 L | +13.9wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Jets | 66c | 110$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.6 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Oilers | 30c | 100.83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.58 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Oilers | 34c | 100$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 541 | 32.7%177 W · 364 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcf…48e1backed Oilers | 29c | 100$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +4.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf527…366bbacked Oilers | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 86 | 47.7%41 W · 45 L | +7.0wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Jets | 19c | 61.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 1,107 | 52%576 W · 531 L | +63.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Oilers | 30c | 35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 432 | 50.9%220 W · 212 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Oilers | 29c | 35$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.85 | 780 | 38.5%300 W · 480 L | +23.5wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5384…7408backed Oilers | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Jets | 67c | 28.11$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.83 | 740 | 54.5%403 W · 337 L | +22.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Jets | 69c | 22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Jets | 70c | 18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b82…2d2abacked Jets | 68c | 18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 97 | 50.5%49 W · 48 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03c7…7e8cbacked Jets | 67c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Oilers (-1.5)this page
- Oilers vs. JetsOilers won
- Oilers vs. Jets: O/U 6.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.