NHL · resolved market
Oilers vs. Jets: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfbe7f679920b02ddfb21a88fa6bac596d20ac0019dcb7fcbdfd27cefb0238605
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,612
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,575
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,612 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x07c8…2696backed Over | 49c | 20,019$9,810 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,809.51 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 51c | 16,012$8,166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,845.91 | 881 | 51.2%451 W · 430 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 51c | 5,000$2,550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,449.99 | 1,441 | 49.2%709 W · 732 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2885…486cbacked Over | 47c | 999.99$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 48c | 995.6$477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476.72 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53b9…292abacked Under | 53c | 576.68$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.68 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Under | 53c | 518.87$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.87 | 103 | 46.6%48 W · 55 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 51c | 444$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.56 | 495 | 46.5%230 W · 265 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2058…cf57backed Over | 49c | 408.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 49c | 393$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.57 | 1,024 | 48.4%496 W · 528 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 49c | 351$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.99 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 51c | 299.99$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147 | 759 | 46.6%354 W · 405 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Over | 49c | 285.71$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 1,093 | 51.8%566 W · 527 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 49c | 282$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.18 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 48c | 228.78$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.82 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 49c | 203.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.72 | 939 | 53.6%503 W · 436 L | +29.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc210…39fcbacked Under | 52c | 135.11$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.72 | 89 | 52.8%47 W · 42 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked Under | 51c | 100.1$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.05 | 583 | 46.5%271 W · 312 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e3…9efebacked Under | 52c | 66.34$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.84 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -3.2wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…e568backed Over | 49c | 57.14$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50c1…6c6cbacked Under | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 137 | 43.1%59 W · 78 L | -7.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a6c…f0b6backed Under | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Oilers vs. Jets: O/U 6.5this page
- Oilers vs. JetsOilers won
- Spread: Oilers (-1.5)Oilers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.