NBA · resolved market
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Dallas Mavericks: Game 1
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8aee94f0c9af3810dac6bc3c01e668c7ca405d963954b81c1eac36961aa4a1bc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Mavericksof Timberwolves, Mavericks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,209
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,229
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,209 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfb91…df9dbacked Mavericks | 38c | 455.06$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.06 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf4…7883backed Mavericks | 36c | 403$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.4 | 80 | 51.3%41 W · 39 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe932…0f05backed Timberwolves | 64c | 400$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6678…d4b6backed Timberwolves | 63c | 269.84$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ac…08d5backed Mavericks | 38c | 223.5$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.57 | 99 | 46.5%46 W · 53 L | +8.0wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Timberwolves | 63c | 221.84$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.76 | 1,090 | 35.8%390 W · 700 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a92…4209backed Timberwolves | 62c | 125$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.5 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -4.9wins | -0.27per pick | 44cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2736…3625backed Mavericks | 35c | 120$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Timberwolves | 63c | 100$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 159 | 52.2%83 W · 76 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked Mavericks | 37c | 64.82$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.8 | 228 | 32%73 W · 155 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b55…02f8backed Mavericks | 47c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.12 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e80…47e6backed Mavericks | 39c | 30.77$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf156…7037backed Mavericks | 39c | 30.77$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.77 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +105.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa6…1ecbbacked Timberwolves | 63c | 26.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 52cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7aa9…1d54backed Timberwolves | 62c | 24.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked Timberwolves | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 795 | 49.7%395 W · 400 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedb5…f88abacked Timberwolves | 63c | 19.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f81…91febacked Timberwolves | 63c | 17.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80ad…e512backed Timberwolves | 63c | 17.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.