Other European Leagues · resolved market
Will Telstar 1963 vs. AFC Ajax end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8b1d7885835750c0f0125cfc25c97798342f3d1eaf2bf47a231d18252121e839
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,458
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,923
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,458 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 23c | 1,618$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.2 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 74c | 1,062$786 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276 | 2,179 | 48%1,046 W · 1,133 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…d0e5backed No | 75c | 1,000$752 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.27 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…3335backed Yes | 15c | 1,000$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.25 | 205 | 72.2%148 W · 57 L | +11.3wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 77c | 737.93$568 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.63 | 2,130 | 45.8%975 W · 1,155 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ad…0614backed Yes | 6c | 375.97$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.05 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 25c | 372$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 396 | 37.1%147 W · 249 L | -10.9wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad15…ee7fbacked No | 76c | 331.87$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.87 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc450…f2f7backed No | 75c | 320$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 20c | 314$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.8 | 133 | 30.1%40 W · 93 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Yes | 11c | 243.04$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.01 | 250 | 46.8%117 W · 133 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec6c…23c7backed Yes | 20c | 227$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.12 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -36%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5468…8a4abacked Yes | 24c | 200$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x286e…7d04backed Yes | 13c | 154.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x796a…b0a4backed Yes | 10c | 141.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28a2…91a4backed No | 75c | 138$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 42 | 64.3%27 W · 15 L | +4.1wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x051c…f25dbacked Yes | 25c | 109.98$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 670 | 50.6%339 W · 331 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…5ab9backed No | 76c | 94$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.56 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 24c | 85.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.46 | 1,401 | 29.2%409 W · 992 L | -32.2wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00fe…eff7backed No | 76c | 83$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.92 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8a3…a380backed No | 76c | 81$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 20c | 74.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 242 | 42.1%102 W · 140 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d7…ba47backed Yes | 25c | 60.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37ea…6cb9backed No | 80c | 56.35$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.27 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fe1…e560backed Yes | 25c | 42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed No | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 217 | 55.3%120 W · 97 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacd0…e0f5backed No | 77c | 38.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 77cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1294…9dbabacked No | 74c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e66…921dbacked No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6723…a540backed No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +2.8wins | +0.15per pick | 59cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed No | 76c | 26.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 137 | 70.8%97 W · 40 L | -7.5wins | -0.05per pick | 76cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d67…cf38backed No | 75c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +3.2wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 75c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 1,159 | 60.7%703 W · 456 L | +68.5wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Telstar 1963 vs. AFC Ajax end in a draw?this page
- Will AFC Ajax win on 2026-01-11?Yes won
- Will Telstar 1963 win on 2026-01-11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.