NBA · resolved market
Spread: Trail Blazers (-8.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8b351fac60961a326e7fbcb24860d65601d0371132e55be7705655403296c554
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Lakersof Trail Blazers, Lakers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,894
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,882
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,894 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Lakers | 47c | 8,150$3,829 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,321.69 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Trail Blazers | 53c | 8,000$4,240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,240 | 801 | 46.4%372 W · 429 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefe8…fe1abacked Trail Blazers | 53c | 684.66$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.12 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ad…6ed7backed Lakers | 46c | 499.99$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Trail Blazers | 47c | 434.97$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.86 | 471 | 44.2%208 W · 263 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8511…4a6bbacked Lakers | 48c | 369.99$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.4 | 303 | 51.8%157 W · 146 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6941…efd5backed Trail Blazers | 54c | 184.45$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -7.1wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…dc80backed Lakers | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 197 | 41.6%82 W · 115 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x939d…3b3cbacked Trail Blazers | 52c | 122.03$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.44 | 60 | 50%30 W · 30 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69c4…09a3backed Lakers | 48c | 89.58$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.58 | 102 | 50%51 W · 51 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Trail Blazers | 47c | 87$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.89 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd99…f375backed Lakers | 53c | 87$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.89 | 381 | 51.2%195 W · 186 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbed1…331bbacked Trail Blazers | 54c | 70.37$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0fb…8092backed Trail Blazers | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -3.8wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Lakers | 45c | 39.46$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.7 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12c4…ff8cbacked Trail Blazers | 54c | 38.72$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.91 | 152 | 45.4%69 W · 83 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcda0…a51abacked Trail Blazers | 56c | 31.75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.78 | 296 | 52.7%156 W · 140 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6079…81c6backed Trail Blazers | 52c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 105 | 48.6%51 W · 54 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Trail Blazers (-8.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Trail Blazers (-2.5)Lakers won
- Lakers vs. Trail BlazersLakers won
- Lakers vs. Trail Blazers: 1H O/U 120.5Under won
- Lakers vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 228.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 232.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 233.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 234.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 235.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 236.5Over won
- Spread: Trail Blazers (-2.5)Lakers won
- Spread: Trail Blazers (-3.5)Lakers won
- Spread: Trail Blazers (-9.5)Lakers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.