NBA · resolved market
Spread: Trail Blazers (-9.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x83258d4198051d55cbfd31b3f4c7fd9712fed792455cf5aad6ee4c5edb2f55b0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Lakersof Trail Blazers, Lakers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $443,133
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $443,482
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $443,133 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x145c…43bcbacked Trail Blazers | 50c | 425,900$214,488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214,487.75 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.27per pick | 51cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Lakers | 50c | 290,479$144,438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146,040.83 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked Lakers | 50c | 80,000$39,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40,400 | 596 | 53.4%318 W · 278 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Lakers | 49c | 26,156$12,886 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,270.38 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Lakers | 49c | 16,296$7,985 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,310.96 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Lakers | 49c | 15,030$7,365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,665.3 | 474 | 48.7%231 W · 243 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed Trail Blazers | 52c | 6,000$3,120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,120 | 477 | 48.8%233 W · 244 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Trail Blazers | 52c | 4,000$2,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,080 | 180 | 47.8%86 W · 94 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Trail Blazers | 45c | 3,187$1,427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,426.98 | 471 | 44.2%208 W · 263 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Lakers | 49c | 2,700$1,335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,365 | 418 | 48.3%202 W · 216 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdec6…1d8ebacked Lakers | 52c | 2,187$1,137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,049.54 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc31…4a51backed Lakers | 56c | 1,866$1,045 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$821.25 | 130 | 63.8%83 W · 47 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked Lakers | 50c | 1,500$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$750 | 456 | 47.1%215 W · 241 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Lakers | 50c | 1,087$542 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$544.98 | 1,667 | 52.7%878 W · 789 L | +45.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa03b…c3f1backed Lakers | 56c | 857.14$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x375e…6c94backed Lakers | 49c | 200$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | -8.4wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0e…5b17backed Lakers | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Trail Blazers | 52c | 192.69$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 930 | 36.5%339 W · 591 L | -20.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5dd…b094backed Lakers | 55c | 180$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 339 | 50.1%170 W · 169 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99c6…5a57backed Lakers | 51c | 176.8$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.63 | 60 | 61.7%37 W · 23 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6aed…eb43backed Trail Blazers | 52c | 165.38$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb9d…b033backed Lakers | 50c | 165$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.7 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc399…a1b1backed Trail Blazers | 50c | 144$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda37…6a4abacked Lakers | 50c | 105$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fde…66b2backed Lakers | 50c | 90.19$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.1 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe742…e16cbacked Lakers | 51c | 62.75$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.75 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a4f…c4f2backed Lakers | 52c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 320 | 41.9%134 W · 186 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2412…b5a1backed Lakers | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -4.8wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -27%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4884…9b0abacked Lakers | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e5…5a2cbacked Trail Blazers | 51c | 29.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.14 | 246 | 53.3%131 W · 115 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2a…845bbacked Trail Blazers | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 85 | 57.6%49 W · 36 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Trail Blazers (-9.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Trail Blazers (-2.5)Lakers won
- Lakers vs. Trail BlazersLakers won
- Lakers vs. Trail Blazers: 1H O/U 120.5Under won
- Lakers vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 228.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 232.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 233.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 234.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 235.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 236.5Over won
- Spread: Trail Blazers (-2.5)Lakers won
- Spread: Trail Blazers (-3.5)Lakers won
- Spread: Trail Blazers (-8.5)Lakers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.