Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 48-49°F on March 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8b4c783c30091ffc6717e5c38b97be64b36b8c21650f6772f09699e85f990f55
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,732
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,732 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8a60…44adbacked Yes | 4c | 492.6$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.87 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 16c | 394.19$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.31 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 14c | 390.25$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.25 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 11c | 318$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.35 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 77c | 300.62$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.84 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked Yes | 49c | 300$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.91 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…ca53backed No | 79c | 293.74$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.35 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 12c | 262.27$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.47 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1236…78bebacked Yes | 19c | 199.69$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.22 | 73 | 30.1%22 W · 51 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…2b4abacked Yes | 9c | 172.63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 149 | 15.4%23 W · 126 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d07…6bf3backed Yes | 12c | 156.53$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.41 | 196 | 17.9%35 W · 161 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a2…370dbacked Yes | 27c | 133.43$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd574…059abacked Yes | 20c | 132.49$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53a0…1907backed Yes | 11c | 124.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 73 | 9.6%7 W · 66 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 12c | 124$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf211…385dbacked Yes | 21c | 119.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.47 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a2c…64f0backed Yes | 21c | 115.4$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 77 | 14.3%11 W · 66 L | -6.7wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2967…4ae7backed Yes | 11c | 114.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 257 | 25.7%66 W · 191 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 9c | 112.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 12c | 111.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd271…37e0backed Yes | 16c | 109.24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 310 | 29.7%92 W · 218 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46b3…d3debacked Yes | 11c | 107.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 244 | 14.3%35 W · 209 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f7…fd31backed Yes | 10c | 102.43$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 125 | 35.2%44 W · 81 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd26…5b5cbacked Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 115 | 33%38 W · 77 L | -7.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 22c | 99.96$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 24c | 97.02$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.97 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…b254backed Yes | 19c | 89$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 598 | 18.4%110 W · 488 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 23c | 80.37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 328 | 18.3%60 W · 268 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x399d…bf83backed Yes | 15c | 75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +82.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 62c | 71.77$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.18 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4221backed No | 59c | 67.76$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.63 | 144 | 42.4%61 W · 83 L | -11.7wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 73c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.22 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 73c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.54 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85bd…7f75backed Yes | 34c | 44.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 253 | 62.8%159 W · 94 L | +16.0wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 74c | 33.18$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.54 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7658…e770backed No | 71c | 17.43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.02 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | -5.6wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x920d…af4bbacked No | 70c | 15.71$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.71 | 199 | 70.4%140 W · 59 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc302…e412backed No | 70c | 14.46$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.37 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 48-49°F on March 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 50-51°F on March 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on March 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.