Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 50-51°F on March 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x33d87ca6449d6472f8cb30ba8875f4b95e3422baf4a557d8b35886529a7bf5bd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,187
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,187 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbd26…5b5cbacked Yes | 60c | 400$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.25 | 115 | 33%38 W · 77 L | -7.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 55c | 346.1$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.66 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 24c | 334.87$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.47 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 55c | 330.34$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.81 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 36c | 300.84$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.82 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…2048backed No | 41c | 298.79$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.7 | 135 | 31.9%43 W · 92 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 42c | 282.48$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.66 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 62c | 252.04$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.28 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 36c | 175.73$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.18 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79b9…7d93backed Yes | 33c | 160.87$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.57 | 84 | 31%26 W · 58 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea74…2fadbacked No | 62c | 159.99$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.03 | 120 | 68.3%82 W · 38 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbe…139ebacked No | 9c | 150$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 66c | 134.84$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.9 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 38c | 132.03$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.69 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 34c | 124$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.59 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 66c | 118.46$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.47 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 46c | 109.3$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.92 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e3e…522abacked No | 53c | 107.65$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.37 | 102 | 37.3%38 W · 64 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 68c | 96$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.64 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ba…d397backed No | 50c | 88.78$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.08 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.31per pick | 46cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x22fe…20c6backed Yes | 33c | 84.6$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.68 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed No | 35c | 82.11$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.98 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…b254backed Yes | 30c | 82$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.8 | 598 | 18.4%110 W · 488 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 37c | 78.74$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.74 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…9d98backed Yes | 65c | 77.16$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.16 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 34c | 68.45$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.2 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa42b…92e0backed Yes | 38c | 68.15$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.55 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 61c | 66.01$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.93 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 35c | 63.72$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.58 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6af…fc2fbacked No | 47c | 63.62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6987…846bbacked Yes | 34c | 59.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.66 | 90 | 40%36 W · 54 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd574…059abacked Yes | 68c | 58.51$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.51 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed No | 70c | 57.14$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e3…a50cbacked Yes | 45c | 51$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.22 | 214 | 36%77 W · 137 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f7…fd31backed No | 40c | 50.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 125 | 35.2%44 W · 81 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe768…10efbacked Yes | 59c | 50.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.56 | 113 | 55.8%63 W · 50 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b9…3377backed No | 60c | 45.31$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.39 | 140 | 71.4%100 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f12…7057backed No | 66c | 43.13$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.67 | 192 | 59.9%115 W · 77 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a5c…e8f2backed No | 66c | 41.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.83 | 107 | 36.4%39 W · 68 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…d88cbacked Yes | 38c | 39.16$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.16 | 145 | 44.8%65 W · 80 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ee…31aebacked No | 53c | 37.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 67c | 37.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes | 32c | 37$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.16 | 331 | 39.6%131 W · 200 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 45c | 35.02$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed No | 68c | 35$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 163 | 66.3%108 W · 55 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x685e…983abacked Yes | 61c | 33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.73 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 66c | 32.95$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 348 | 46.6%162 W · 186 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72b8…5b9cbacked Yes | 67c | 31.18$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.33 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c79…c259backed No | 67c | 31.07$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.85 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6160…fdfcbacked No | 51c | 30.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +5.3wins | +0.15per pick | 39cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf2de…ff4fbacked No | 66c | 30.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 64 | 60.9%39 W · 25 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbebb…28b8backed Yes | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed Yes | 50c | 29.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.05 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb94e…e6e5backed No | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x279e…5994backed Yes | 38c | 29.12$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.12 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef3…ac46backed Yes | 58c | 28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 194 | 49%95 W · 99 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed No | 50c | 27.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 44c | 25.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 64c | 25.46$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.21 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 79c | 25.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.37 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x77f9…3fa1backed Yes | 47c | 24.42$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.06 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.47per pick | 20cpaid | +255.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x60a3…5c46backed Yes | 70c | 21.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.36 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +89.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed No | 64c | 19.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16d9…f0b0backed No | 58c | 18.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 286 | 48.3%138 W · 148 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e39…8e7abacked No | 62c | 16.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 52 | 71.2%37 W · 15 L | +6.0wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0644…05debacked Yes | 66c | 16.27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 50-51°F on March 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 48-49°F on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on March 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.