Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on March 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x428df1daa9faa5c4cbafe79d3ce2b168ee08c3bb8ddef2530990ecf7b70f7c23
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,643
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,643 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf211…385dbacked Yes | 11c | 696.65$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.58 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd26…5b5cbacked Yes | 30c | 399.99$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.37 | 115 | 33%38 W · 77 L | -7.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc3f9…547ebacked No | 76c | 383.58$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.18 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 71cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed No | 78c | 343.23$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.87 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 19c | 339$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.53 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 15c | 230.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.23 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 19c | 218.98$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.45 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 15c | 208.92$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.84 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 32c | 185.71$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.03 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 25c | 171.35$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.93 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 75c | 159.85$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.36 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…b254backed Yes | 40c | 152.93$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.28 | 598 | 18.4%110 W · 488 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 11c | 149.68$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.06 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 35c | 141.39$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.85 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea74…2fadbacked No | 64c | 129$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.54 | 120 | 68.3%82 W · 38 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 35c | 124$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.84 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 23c | 121.04$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.17 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…2048backed No | 48c | 119.37$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.53 | 135 | 31.9%43 W · 92 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 31c | 112.18$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.32 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32e5…931abacked Yes | 28c | 100.45$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.41 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf767…f052backed No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 84 | 61.9%52 W · 32 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 62c | 93.45$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.19 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 38c | 85.26$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.35 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…97b8backed No | 59c | 85.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.68 | 185 | 50.3%93 W · 92 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 23c | 79.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 41c | 78.74$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 39c | 76.19$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.03 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7764…29d3backed Yes | 28c | 64.29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 68c | 60$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.25 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 37c | 59$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e2a…12c2backed Yes | 37c | 56.33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.77 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 33c | 53.21$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.56 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 63c | 51.58$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.08 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…1e6dbacked Yes | 25c | 48.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 327 | 38.2%125 W · 202 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 56c | 44.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.98 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 46c | 44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.69 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 32c | 39.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e3e…522abacked No | 60c | 33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 102 | 37.3%38 W · 64 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa019…7935backed No | 77c | 29.82$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.87 | 53 | 75.5%40 W · 13 L | +5.7wins | +0.11per pick | 65cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1b24…6e4abacked No | 46c | 26.32$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.21 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed No | 72c | 26.31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.37 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16d9…f0b0backed No | 80c | 22.12$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.44 | 286 | 48.3%138 W · 148 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 54c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 65c | 21.48$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc495…b421backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x27fb…3f5ebacked No | 63c | 17.46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 209 | 42.1%88 W · 121 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc472…b96cbacked No | 64c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 59 | 28.8%17 W · 42 L | -12.2wins | -0.21per pick | 49cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c8…b8c0backed No | 72c | 16.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.62 | 328 | 30.5%100 W · 228 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on March 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 48-49°F on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 50-51°F on March 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on March 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.