Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Grey Trac - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8b4d7231ce34fcf35f8a2cb9cb8eda08c3c9c06b57d797ba20649ed5ecb0d4da
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Vici Gamingof Vici Gaming, Grey Trac
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,350
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,073
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,350 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…165bbacked Grey Trac | 17c | 10,513$1,787 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,786.7 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f5…3d04backed Grey Trac | 12c | 1,832$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223 | 510 | 49%250 W · 260 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe16d…5e30backed Vici Gaming | 78c | 1,546$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.54 | 1,210 | 57.1%691 W · 519 L | +44.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Vici Gaming | 77c | 1,196$918 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.92 | 691 | 32.6%225 W · 466 L | -26.8wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…c436backed Grey Trac | 10c | 1,175$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.71 | 508 | 32.9%167 W · 341 L | -14.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5556…2759backed Grey Trac | 21c | 1,020$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.3 | 292 | 43.2%126 W · 166 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x880d…39bcbacked Grey Trac | 31c | 996.28$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.03 | 327 | 56.9%186 W · 141 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31a4…7afcbacked Grey Trac | 11c | 707.8$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.86 | 953 | 42.2%402 W · 551 L | -20.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Grey Trac | 25c | 533.33$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.33 | 168 | 42.9%72 W · 96 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c67…d062backed Grey Trac | 20c | 507.05$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,137 | 42.3%481 W · 656 L | -27.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Grey Trac | 13c | 420.35$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.65 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf34b…bcb3backed Grey Trac | 15c | 400$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 583 | 56.8%331 W · 252 L | +28.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc37d…e586backed Grey Trac | 18c | 257.03$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.95 | 387 | 59.4%230 W · 157 L | +26.6wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x08b8…e7dabacked Grey Trac | 13c | 248.79$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.85 | 310 | 55.2%171 W · 139 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf438…9901backed Grey Trac | 8c | 248.72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.22 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed Grey Trac | 22c | 211$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.01 | 645 | 47.8%308 W · 337 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Grey Trac | 9c | 163.63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 49 | 10.2%5 W · 44 L | -6.9wins | -0.14per pick | 24cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Grey Trac | 8c | 152.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 785 | 16.6%130 W · 655 L | -135.4wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Vici Gaming | 70c | 133.81$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.49 | 1,260 | 49.7%626 W · 634 L | +21.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Grey Trac | 9c | 133$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 1,120 | 36.1%404 W · 716 L | -39.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Grey Trac | 20c | 112$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.36 | 500 | 32.2%161 W · 339 L | -47.1wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1982…bc7bbacked Grey Trac | 13c | 103.84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90d4…2deebacked Grey Trac | 13c | 91.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5672…7312backed Vici Gaming | 79c | 82.26$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.14 | 520 | 46.5%242 W · 278 L | +12.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd154…9c74backed Grey Trac | 23c | 82$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.86 | 168 | 39.9%67 W · 101 L | -9.1wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9991…36b8backed Vici Gaming | 69c | 60.71$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.82 | 96 | 58.3%56 W · 40 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c2…45b2backed Grey Trac | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 107 | 41.1%44 W · 63 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7b7…3852backed Vici Gaming | 79c | 19.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.01 | 21 | 81%17 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.12per pick | 69cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Grey Trac - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Grey Trac (BO3) - The International China Closed Qualifier PlayoffsVici Gaming won
- Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Grey Trac - Game 2 WinnerVici Gaming won
- Game Handicap: VG (-1.5) vs Grey Trac (+1.5)Vici Gaming won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.