Tennis · resolved market
Winnipeg: Liam Draxl vs Toby Samuel
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8b5511c847fd2af5d3fa59a204fa5e0a5ca1b5a8a6af74e545824a97aaf7ffa9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Toby Samuelof Liam Draxl, Toby Samuel
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,233
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,518
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,233 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Toby Samuel | 66c | 2,854$1,882 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$972.36 | 8,828 | 36.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L | -193.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2cd…841dbacked Liam Draxl | 8c | 2,026$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.61 | 101 | 22.8%23 W · 78 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x545d…c122backed Liam Draxl | 50c | 1,804$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 460 | 30.4%140 W · 320 L | -18.7wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb77…ef9ebacked Toby Samuel | 67c | 1,493$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$493.13 | 940 | 68.1%640 W · 300 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaac…d71dbacked Liam Draxl | 33c | 1,443$476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476.2 | 1,865 | 45.6%851 W · 1,014 L | +50.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Toby Samuel | 71c | 1,354$965 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.74 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ac…1ce0backed Toby Samuel | 77c | 1,136$880 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.47 | 124 | 67.7%84 W · 40 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75a7…2d61backed Liam Draxl | 26c | 1,093$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.11 | 717 | 25.2%181 W · 536 L | +9.9wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Liam Draxl | 37c | 1,028$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.02 | 4,241 | 52.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L | +65.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51e1…5ec9backed Liam Draxl | 4c | 999.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 440 | 18.9%83 W · 357 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa212…9161backed Liam Draxl | 19c | 800$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153 | 141 | 42.6%60 W · 81 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc12e…7c8abacked Liam Draxl | 13c | 769.23$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 75 | 24%18 W · 57 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd898…a47dbacked Liam Draxl | 25c | 760.58$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.05 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c5c…91fcbacked Toby Samuel | 66c | 605.68$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.68 | 447 | 51.7%231 W · 216 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42c9…9623backed Toby Samuel | 61c | 484.24$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.71 | 4,703 | 49.4%2,323 W · 2,380 L | +166.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98db…dd17backed Toby Samuel | 52c | 476.17$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.6 | 5,350 | 56.4%3,016 W · 2,334 L | +228.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef9f…8924backed Liam Draxl | 34c | 333$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.22 | 78 | 29.5%23 W · 55 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ce8…4dd6backed Liam Draxl | 14c | 331.2$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.37 | 579 | 50.9%295 W · 284 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x365f…706abacked Toby Samuel | 79c | 325.14$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.38 | 1,795 | 46.6%837 W · 958 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57cc…0fa7backed Toby Samuel | 63c | 318.61$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.03 | 185 | 42.7%79 W · 106 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Liam Draxl | 33c | 299.96$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.99 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5923…04b8backed Toby Samuel | 67c | 299.96$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.99 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Toby Samuel | 65c | 294.99$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.25 | 3,256 | 48.2%1,570 W · 1,686 L | -53.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Toby Samuel | 60c | 281.15$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.53 | 2,766 | 47.7%1,318 W · 1,448 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9888…e6febacked Liam Draxl | 37c | 245.55$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.9 | 2,447 | 45.9%1,123 W · 1,324 L | -12.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4411…985ebacked Liam Draxl | 51c | 193.35$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.61 | 2,145 | 54.2%1,162 W · 983 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa36c…5754backed Toby Samuel | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 420 | 42.6%179 W · 241 L | -11.0wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Toby Samuel | 55c | 162.57$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.38 | 6,786 | 48.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L | +56.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf051…acd4backed Toby Samuel | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 78 | 51.3%40 W · 38 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Liam Draxl | 51c | 150.81$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.91 | 3,661 | 45.2%1,654 W · 2,007 L | -8.7wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x294b…22d2backed Liam Draxl | 35c | 142.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 279 | 49.1%137 W · 142 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecdb…c4c7backed Liam Draxl | 34c | 136.23$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.7 | 559 | 41.3%231 W · 328 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a62…4ab9backed Liam Draxl | 35c | 111.43$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 145 | 36.6%53 W · 92 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c0…22ebbacked Liam Draxl | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 405 | 27.2%110 W · 295 L | -17.2wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Toby Samuel | 53c | 94.77$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.61 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa7…e3d9backed Liam Draxl | 19c | 84$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.16 | 57 | 8.8%5 W · 52 L | -5.7wins | -0.10per pick | 19cpaid | -75.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe8…72bcbacked Toby Samuel | 58c | 80$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 536 | 57.8%310 W · 226 L | +35.2wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e4b…0a04backed Liam Draxl | 20c | 74.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 252 | 59.9%151 W · 101 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1e…befebacked Liam Draxl | 38c | 73.01$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.54 | 171 | 47.4%81 W · 90 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cba…b694backed Toby Samuel | 67c | 67.9$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.6 | 1,429 | 44.2%631 W · 798 L | -23.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed Liam Draxl | 33c | 59.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.63 | 146 | 37.7%55 W · 91 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Liam Draxl | 34c | 58.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 5,261 | 28.8%1,514 W · 3,747 L | -19.4wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc8…e209backed Liam Draxl | 52c | 57.28$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.79 | 396 | 48%190 W · 206 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01af…7bc2backed Liam Draxl | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 215 | 36.7%79 W · 136 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07b1…b027backed Toby Samuel | 70c | 56.46$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.94 | 307 | 46.3%142 W · 165 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6796…453fbacked Liam Draxl | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 944 | 47.7%450 W · 494 L | +34.5wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c80…e19bbacked Liam Draxl | 42c | 47.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 177 | 48%85 W · 92 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a20…d606backed Toby Samuel | 72c | 47$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.16 | 926 | 74.6%691 W · 235 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 74cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbef9…aa36backed Liam Draxl | 35c | 42.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 79 | 51.9%41 W · 38 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x583c…86c0backed Toby Samuel | 55c | 36.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.49 | 90 | 38.9%35 W · 55 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6485…a265backed Toby Samuel | 71c | 36$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.62 | 2,281 | 52%1,187 W · 1,094 L | +82.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x747f…f2d7backed Liam Draxl | 34c | 35.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 901 | 52.3%471 W · 430 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31e7…fe2abacked Liam Draxl | 37c | 31.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 1,356 | 38.3%520 W · 836 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Liam Draxl | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 553 | 47.6%263 W · 290 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x007b…1fd2backed Toby Samuel | 72c | 26.31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.37 | 169 | 64.5%109 W · 60 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8d…7688backed Toby Samuel | 64c | 26.28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 331 | 65%215 W · 116 L | +22.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4126…e68bbacked Toby Samuel | 78c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 1,159 | 69%800 W · 359 L | +56.8wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Toby Samuel | 62c | 23.87$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.16 | 1,629 | 49%798 W · 831 L | -51.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x655b…ec8bbacked Toby Samuel | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 56 | 66.1%37 W · 19 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xff7b…b79fbacked Toby Samuel | 66c | 19.7$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 98 | 67.3%66 W · 32 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.