Tennis · resolved market
ITF Maanshan: Chase Ferguson vs Taiyo Yamanaka
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8b59a71ea198321ee3f29e0d08ec13776b5acf35f4cd3a218597e82e9e6ed5b3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Taiyo Yamanakaof Chase Ferguson, Taiyo Yamanaka
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,183
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,137
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,183 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc07d…b1dfbacked Taiyo Yamanaka | 61c | 2,771$1,689 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,082.38 | 2,383 | 55.6%1,326 W · 1,057 L | +49.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6982…a165backed Chase Ferguson | 58c | 2,584$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 629 | 56.9%358 W · 271 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Chase Ferguson | 48c | 1,015$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$482.72 | 4,241 | 52.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L | +65.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3054…055bbacked Chase Ferguson | 25c | 734.52$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.1 | 137 | 52.6%72 W · 65 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a51…a98fbacked Chase Ferguson | 37c | 605.07$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.64 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde1d…44a6backed Chase Ferguson | 25c | 391.56$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.89 | 212 | 44.3%94 W · 118 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Taiyo Yamanaka | 50c | 314.19$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.62 | 5,416 | 48.6%2,633 W · 2,783 L | +14.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Taiyo Yamanaka | 43c | 295.97$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.38 | 4,921 | 38.7%1,905 W · 3,016 L | -20.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c9…6686backed Chase Ferguson | 26c | 234.4$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.06 | 1,337 | 46%615 W · 722 L | +23.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd056…f1bebacked Taiyo Yamanaka | 55c | 218.18$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.18 | 643 | 50.2%323 W · 320 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb421…8856backed Taiyo Yamanaka | 47c | 211.7$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.7 | 1,776 | 48.6%863 W · 913 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Taiyo Yamanaka | 52c | 150$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.44 | 1,767 | 52.1%920 W · 847 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Taiyo Yamanaka | 37c | 141$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.84 | 4,602 | 48.3%2,223 W · 2,379 L | +34.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd034…eecebacked Chase Ferguson | 45c | 131.14$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.03 | 2,735 | 34%931 W · 1,804 L | -13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Chase Ferguson | 44c | 120.64$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.65 | 5,261 | 28.8%1,514 W · 3,747 L | -19.4wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73c3…fd98backed Taiyo Yamanaka | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.38 | 93 | 54.8%51 W · 42 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39c1…3174backed Taiyo Yamanaka | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.38 | 394 | 51.8%204 W · 190 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17ef…9a2cbacked Taiyo Yamanaka | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.38 | 788 | 57.1%450 W · 338 L | +13.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd82…6a10backed Taiyo Yamanaka | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.38 | 285 | 57.9%165 W · 120 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b0…d8dbbacked Taiyo Yamanaka | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.38 | 490 | 56.9%279 W · 211 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed Taiyo Yamanaka | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 265 | 41.9%111 W · 154 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14e7…a32cbacked Taiyo Yamanaka | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.96 | 1,349 | 49.8%672 W · 677 L | -6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Chase Ferguson | 41c | 97.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3,220 | 40.5%1,305 W · 1,915 L | +28.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Taiyo Yamanaka | 44c | 92.09$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.27 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Chase Ferguson | 41c | 87.8$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 3,424 | 39.1%1,338 W · 2,086 L | -12.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c97…5c66backed Chase Ferguson | 41c | 73.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 483 | 55.1%266 W · 217 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88a9…e618backed Taiyo Yamanaka | 47c | 63.83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.83 | 925 | 54.8%507 W · 418 L | +15.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x103f…86dbbacked Chase Ferguson | 66c | 51.27$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.04 | 163 | 62%101 W · 62 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Chase Ferguson | 35c | 49.79$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.51 | 1,870 | 16%299 W · 1,571 L | -314.3wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 32-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Taiyo Yamanaka | 51c | 47.24$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.31 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Taiyo Yamanaka | 43c | 45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 2,082 | 52.3%1,088 W · 994 L | +19.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…5bdfbacked Chase Ferguson | 69c | 23.55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 969 | 45.9%445 W · 524 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e0…4983backed Taiyo Yamanaka | 56c | 21.43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.43 | 67 | 46.3%31 W · 36 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d70…ae13backed Taiyo Yamanaka | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 76 | 57.9%44 W · 32 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb91c…ed66backed Chase Ferguson | 69c | 14.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 578 | 45.7%264 W · 314 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.