Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8b70be65f2b8c66d6e31a52830e3f5ee203f2d82d03be928201d23fe94f46b8a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,311
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,285
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,311 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 39c | 357.14$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.65 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1b…2caebacked Yes | 39c | 131.69$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.1 | 229 | 37.1%85 W · 144 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 26c | 99.62$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.47 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 53c | 92.2$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.66 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 60c | 87$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.33 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 22c | 80.09$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c70…34c4backed No | 47c | 77.19$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.57 | 168 | 47.6%80 W · 88 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6780…41ccbacked Yes | 55c | 69.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.48 | 270 | 51.1%138 W · 132 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 24c | 63.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.14 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 37c | 54.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.29 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5ee1…4f21backed No | 78c | 53.41$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.59 | 32 | 71.9%23 W · 9 L | +5.2wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 69c | 52.93$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.68 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.83 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…ea54backed Yes | 35c | 49.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 284 | 41.2%117 W · 167 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…b5a7backed No | 74c | 46.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…a786backed No | 65c | 44.78$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.67 | 376 | 69.4%261 W · 115 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b7a…3e93backed Yes | 68c | 44.41$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | -6.5wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcef6…2adebacked Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 259 | 47.1%122 W · 137 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32b5…db37backed No | 76c | 39.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 137 | 51.8%71 W · 66 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 41c | 33.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d60…6df2backed No | 65c | 33.58$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 257 | 66.1%170 W · 87 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…f053backed No | 46c | 33.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 180 | 46.1%83 W · 97 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 51c | 30.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.95 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8d2e…f022backed Yes | 50c | 30.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 180 | 33.9%61 W · 119 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x177b…6e61backed No | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 124 | 58.1%72 W · 52 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 68c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 48c | 28.69$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 64c | 25.83$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.53 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 47c | 23.19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 64c | 22.28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.02 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 50c | 21.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 63c | 20.59$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5937…ae8dbacked Yes | 52c | 20.02$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 185 | 67.6%125 W · 60 L | +28.7wins | +0.16per pick | 52cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on June 16?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.