Stocks · resolved market
Will Microsoft (MSFT) finish week of February 16 above $400?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8b8ebd5065e35cebd46635ca7a0992125a57c1ff9aa3b67981952b0f3a7241b7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,106
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,194
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,106 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 25c | 1,022$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.64 | 25 | 8%2 W · 23 L | -3.7wins | -0.15per pick | 23cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x38d8…ea7cbacked No | 71c | 661.65$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.04 | 1,779 | 49.1%873 W · 906 L | +143.0wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked No | 51c | 475.42$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232 | 812 | 40.3%327 W · 485 L | +37.1wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32c4…d7ecbacked No | 47c | 417.44$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.32 | 348 | 39.1%136 W · 212 L | +11.4wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ceb…baefbacked Yes | 41c | 390$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.3 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed Yes | 47c | 354.54$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.44 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1755…5aacbacked No | 69c | 293.48$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.68 | 1,326 | 46.9%622 W · 704 L | +41.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 50c | 185$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.38 | 863 | 38.1%329 W · 534 L | -43.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf21…be19backed Yes | 29c | 111$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.19 | 482 | 34%164 W · 318 L | +16.4wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4703…d60fbacked No | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.4wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +112.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x90ca…9a86backed No | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.21per pick | 48cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6483…3f18backed Yes | 54c | 80$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed Yes | 30c | 67.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.03 | 81 | 40.7%33 W · 48 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed No | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 602 | 29.9%180 W · 422 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -35%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 61c | 49.79$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.42 | 519 | 27.6%143 W · 376 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0179…5ff2backed Yes | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ce8…ed83backed Yes | 42c | 44.05$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 36c | 31.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 159 | 47.8%76 W · 83 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa5…85cabacked Yes | 60c | 18.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | -4.5wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) finish week of February 16 above $400?this page
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) finish week of February 16 above $350?Yes won
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) finish week of February 16 above $370?Yes won
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) finish week of February 16 above $390?Yes won
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) finish week of February 16 above $410?No won
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) finish week of February 16 above $450?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.